The left: Glucksmann organises his campaign as the battle for the tactical vote against Mélenchon begins

Two weeks after winning the primary of the social democratic left, Raphaël Glucksmann is putting together the team that is meant to carry him to the first round. According to a report by Public Sénat published on Monday 26 October, Alexandre Ouizille, the Socialist senator for the Oise, is expected to become his campaign director. The choice is far from trivial: it says a great deal about the chosen method and the challenge facing the candidate.

The facts

According to Public Sénat, several Socialist sources confirm the appointment of Alexandre Ouizille, 38, which was expected to be made official in the coming days. The senator already served as Raphaël Glucksmann's communications director during the primary. He is known to be very close to Boris Vallaud, president of the Socialist group in the National Assembly, whose campaign he ran at the last PS congress. In the Senate, he made a name for himself as rapporteur of the inquiry committee on bottled water, following the Nestlé Waters affair. Still according to Public Sénat, the team is to be completed by deputy directors who have not yet been named.

The choice follows a clear-cut primary. As reported by AFP, Raphaël Glucksmann won in the first round on 11 October with 66.17% of the vote, or 79,613 votes, out of 120,787 voters. The first secretary of the PS, Olivier Faure, obtained 14.46%, and Ségolène Royal 7.6%.

What the polls say

Before the primary, Raphaël Glucksmann's position was stable but insufficient. LCP, which compiled the September and October surveys, put him between 10 and 14% depending on the polling firm and the scenario. In the Toluna-Harris Interactive survey carried out from 5 to 8 October, Jean-Luc Mélenchon reached 18 to 19% and qualified for the second round against Marine Le Pen in every scenario tested. Ifop put the RN candidate at 32% in the first round.

The primary victory seems to have provided an initial boost. According to an OpinionWay poll for Les Échos and Radio Classique, carried out on 13 and 14 October and cited by Euronews, Raphaël Glucksmann would win 15% of voting intentions in one of the scenarios, and 16% if Gabriel Attal represented the centre bloc. A single survey does not make a trend, and the gap with the leader of La France insoumise remains to be confirmed in the coming waves.

The positions at stake

The Glucksmann team's strategy, as described by Public Sénat, has two stages: first attract the ecologist electorate, then present himself as the left-wing candidate best placed to beat the far right. A Socialist strategist summed up the stakes to the parliamentary channel:

"Jean-Luc Mélenchon, ce n'est pas le vote utile" (Jean-Luc Mélenchon is not the tactical vote) — a Socialist strategist, quoted by Public Sénat

La France insoumise can put forward the opposite argument. In their view, the surveys that qualify Jean-Luc Mélenchon for the second round make the case for him as the most credible alternative. This argument deserves to be taken seriously: part of the left-wing electorate has recognised itself in a programme of rupture, and it will not be won over by mere appeals to reason.

There remains an internal front. Public Sénat stresses that the candidate still has to unite the whole Socialist family, including those close to Olivier Faure, who fought him hard during the primary. The choice of someone close to Boris Vallaud can be read as a signal to the party as a whole. It will not be enough on its own.

Analysis

The question of the tactical vote already dominates this campaign, and that is bad news if it is reduced to a calculation. A left that spoke only in terms of qualification percentages would forget the essential point: the French expect answers on the cost of living, schools, hospitals and debt, in a country shaken for several weeks by social protests.

The tactical vote, in the Gaullist sense of the term, is not arithmetic. It is the ability to bring people together beyond one's own camp in order to govern the country, holding together social justice and a sense of the State. On this ground, social democracy has assets: a clear commitment to Europe and international law, a culture of government, a rejection of excess. But it also bears the weight of a past in which its promises of social justice often gave way to budgetary austerity. This legacy probably explains part of the distrust that a section of the working-class electorate still shows towards it.

Alexandre Ouizille's parliamentary experience on bottled water is, moreover, a reminder that an elected representative can make himself heard by defending the general interest against large corporations. It is on this kind of concrete fight, rather than on party squabbles, that the campaign's credibility will be decided.

Conclusion

Raphaël Glucksmann now has legitimacy, a team under construction and a first stirring in the polls. The essential remains to be done: a costed programme that responds to social anger without giving up on balanced public finances. Will the social democratic left manage to convince through its proposals rather than through fear of the far right alone? Only on that condition will the argument of the tactical vote stop being a slogan and become a choice.

Article written with the help of artificial intelligence.