Israel goes to the polls: Netanyahu challenged by Eisenkot, Europe must prepare for the aftermath

Israelis vote this Tuesday, 27 October, to renew the 120 seats of the Knesset. It is the first national election since the Hamas attack of 7 October 2023 and, according to Euronews, a large share of the electorate sees it as a verdict on Benjamin Netanyahu. Official results are expected on 4 November.

The facts: a weary country, an opposition in the lead

The latest polls, compiled by the Jerusalem Post two days before the vote, put Yashar in first place, the centrist party founded in September 2025 by Gadi Eisenkot, a former army chief of staff. It would win 22 seats on average, ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud (around 20) and the joint list of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid (around 14.5).

But neither camp reaches the 61-seat majority. According to the same compilation, the opposition bloc would win 54 seats on average, against just under 50 for the outgoing coalition. The Arab parties, credited with around 14.5 seats, and a few small lists close to the 3.25% threshold could decide the outcome. A deadlock is therefore a serious scenario. As Euronews points out, if no coalition is formed, Benjamin Netanyahu remains in office as head of a caretaker government until a new election.

The campaign is ending in a tense climate. According to Euronews, the Israeli army has ordered all land crossings in the West Bank closed on election day, after two Israeli soldiers were killed by Palestinian gunmen near Hebron. The military operation that followed has displaced many Palestinian families: around 250 according to the city's mayor, 150 according to the governor, as reported by L'Observatoire de l'Europe. The governor denounced "collective punishment", while the army says it is conducting a "targeted" operation. According to Euronews, the Israeli NGO B'Tselem called on the international community to act.

The positions at stake

Benjamin Netanyahu's camp highlights its firmness towards Iran and Hamas, and the Prime Minister has reaffirmed his opposition to a Palestinian state. For his supporters, changing leaders in the middle of a war would be a risk. His far-right ally Itamar Ben-Gvir is even calling for the dismantling of the Palestinian Authority.

Gadi Eisenkot presents himself as a unifier. According to its programme, Yashar wants to keep Israel a "Jewish and democratic" state, introduce national service for all and involve ultra-Orthodox and Arab citizens in military service. That last point matters: according to Euronews, around 13,000 young ultra-Orthodox men turn 18 each year, and fewer than one in ten enlist.

On the war itself, the two camps differ less than is often thought in Europe. Euronews notes that the campaign has said little about Gaza, Lebanon or Iran, because military operations enjoy broad support among Jewish voters. The vote turns mainly on responsibility for 7 October, the conscription of the ultra-Orthodox, judicial reform and the cost of living. Again according to Euronews, 68% of Jewish voters say their view of 7 October is central to their choice.

Analysis: what Europe can expect, and what it must demand

For France and Europe, it would be unwise to see a possible defeat of Benjamin Netanyahu as the end of the difficulties. A government led by Gadi Eisenkot would probably change its tone, but nothing in his published programme points to a swift return to the two-state solution.

That does not make the election irrelevant. Israeli democracy has shown, in recent years, a lively civil society, able to take to the streets in large numbers. A peaceful change of power, after three years of war, would be good news for all those who believe that lasting security does not come from force alone.

France has taken a stand. In September 2025, it recognised the State of Palestine at the United Nations, as reported by Public Sénat. That decision binds our diplomacy: whoever wins, Paris will have to speak the same language. Israel's right to live in security is beyond dispute. So is international law, including in the West Bank, where population displacement and settler violence cannot be treated as mere campaign incidents.

The European Union, Israel's leading trading partner, has leverage through the association agreement, whose Article 2 makes respect for human rights an essential element. As Euronews has reported, it has long hesitated to use it, with member states remaining divided. The post-election period will be the moment to set a clear line, neither punitive on principle nor complacent out of habit.

Conclusion: speaking with one voice

The Gaullist tradition has always refused to choose between friendship with Israel and the justice owed to the Palestinians. It held that France only carries weight if it is consistent. From the day after the vote, whatever the result, Paris could propose to its European partners a simple joint statement: readiness to work with the future government, and clear conditions on the West Bank, humanitarian access to Gaza and the revival of a political horizon for the Palestinians.

One question remains open: if the ballot box does not settle the matter and Israel sinks into a new deadlock, will Europe wait another year to define its own policy?

Article written with the help of artificial intelligence.