Serbia: student street protest takes on Vučić at the ballot box, and Europe cannot stand by

Some 150,000 people gathered in central Belgrade on Thursday evening, according to the Archive of Public Gatherings, an independent group that counts crowds, as cited by the Bulgarian agency Novinite. The march converged on Slavija Square for the student list's last big rally before this Sunday's snap parliamentary elections on 25 October. Nearly two years after the Novi Sad disaster, the protest movement born in the universities is now putting itself before the voters.

The facts

It all began in November 2024: the concrete canopy of the newly renovated Novi Sad railway station collapsed, killing sixteen people. As AFP recalls, the disaster, widely blamed on corruption, sparked the largest protests since the fall of Slobodan Milošević in 2000. In March 2025, a rally in Belgrade brought together around 300,000 people according to an independent count.

Under this pressure, Aleksandar Vučić dissolved the National Assembly on 9 September, reports Toute l'Europe. On 28 September, he stepped down as President of the Republic, seven months before the end of his second term, to lead the ruling camp's list and run for Prime Minister, according to Euronews. The Constitution barred him from a third presidential term. The Speaker of Parliament, Ana Brnabić, is acting head of state, and a presidential election must be held by the end of December.

Opposite him, the student list is fielding 250 candidates for 250 seats. According to AFP, most have never held office; many come from academia. The movement has no leader: faculty assemblies choose the candidates. Its programme puts the fight against corruption at its core, along with access to healthcare and affordable housing. A pro-Western coalition, European Serbia, is running separately.

An uncertain vote, a contested campaign

The polls contradict each other. Euronews cites a Faktor Plus survey from September giving Vučić's list 48.6% against 37.1% for the students, and a study by the NGO CRTA, carried out in June on a larger sample, that reverses the balance: 44.9% for the students, 35.7% for the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). The two measurements are hard to compare, and Novinite stresses the lack of reliable independent polling.

The conditions of the campaign raise questions. According to election monitoring data reported by Euronews, Vučić took up 46% of the airtime devoted to political figures on four national channels, and 91% of the content about the student list was negative in tone. Civil society organisations, cited by Novinite, denounce intimidation, arrests and the use of public resources, and consider that the conditions for a free and fair vote are not in place. The government has also announced a 980 million euro package for pensioners and war veterans, which the opposition likens to early campaigning, reports Toute l'Europe.

The positions at stake

Those in power defend their record and their standing. Vučić presents himself as an indispensable leader, able to keep the balance between Brussels and Moscow, notes AFP. He has called on his supporters to protect the state and describes the student movement as a foreign-funded coup attempt. He rejects accusations of violence against his opponents and of ties to organised crime. His camp also highlights the gesture of clemency announced at the end of September: pardons or amnesty for 49 people involved in protest-related cases, including eleven of his own supporters, according to Euronews.

These arguments deserve a hearing: stability matters in a region scarred by the wars of the 1990s, and a leaderless movement with no experience of power raises real questions about its ability to govern. But the accusation of foreign interference, repeated without public evidence, does not answer the question asked since Novi Sad: who is responsible, and has the justice system been able to do its job?

Students are winning! — Jugoslav Gašić, professor and student list candidate

What Europe has at stake in Belgrade

Serbia has been a candidate for European Union membership since 2012, but the process is stalled, owing to insufficient rule-of-law reforms and tensions with Kosovo, Toute l'Europe recalls. Belgrade has not applied sanctions against Russia since 2022. Among Brussels' requirements are precisely the conditions for free and fair elections.

Seven MEPs from six political groups are observing the vote as part of the OSCE ODIHR mission, Eunews reports. Their joint statement is expected on Monday. It will matter: for years, the Union has humoured a leader seen as useful for stability in the Balkans, at the risk of appearing to turn a blind eye to democratic backsliding.

For France, the stakes are twofold. True to a Gaullist tradition attached to Franco-Serbian friendship and to European balance, Paris has an interest in a stable Serbia. But stability that does not rest on genuine media pluralism and an independent judiciary is only a reprieve. And young people demanding safe infrastructure, honest institutions and a justice system that works are speaking the language Europe claims to defend.

And on Monday?

Whatever the result, the Union will have to choose its line. If the observers find serious violations, Brussels and Paris should say so clearly and make pre-accession funds conditional on verifiable reforms on the independence of the judiciary and the media. If the student list wins, it will need help turning legitimate anger into solid institutions. The question remains open: will Europe, this time, choose democracy over convenience?

Article written with the help of artificial intelligence.