Cost of living, act III: before 5 November, the State must answer on wages, not only with public order

For the third Saturday in a row, France is marching against the high cost of living. After 17 and 24 October, 31 October saw marches set off across the country, mostly kept away from city centres. In Paris, the march left Porte de Bagnolet for Porte de Charenton, following the route imposed after the Conseil d'État's ruling. Behind the police deployment, one question is still waiting for an answer: wages.

The facts

According to France 24, the Interior Ministry counted around 15,000 demonstrators and 65 actions at an early point in the day. Franceinfo reports that most marches were proceeding calmly, "sans incident notable" according to the ministry. These partial figures do not yet show the final scale of the day. On 24 October, the Interior Ministry had counted 410,000 demonstrators in France, against 800,000 according to the CGT, based on a dispatch carried by ID, l'Info Durable.

As Reuters recalls, the call brings together former yellow vests, trade unions and high school and university student organisations, around purchasing power and public services. The government, for its part, has deployed 70,000 police officers and gendarmes. Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez considered the risk of unrest "très élevé", according to TIME France, after the violence and looting of 17 October.

On the substance, the file lies with the Labour Minister. Speaking on France Inter on 29 October, Jean-Pierre Farandou said that "rien n'est décidé" on an early increase in the minimum wage (Smic), while calling the subject "pas tabou", as reported by Boursorama and Toutsurmesfinances. He hopes for a "convergence" between unions, employers and the State around 5 November, the date of the next national day of mobilisation. Since 1 June, the Smic has stood at 1,477.93 euros net per month for full-time work, according to Service-public.fr.

The positions

The government is moving cautiously. Economy Minister Roland Lescure said on 24 October that the Smic would keep rising if inflation continues, leaving the timing to social dialogue, according to Selectra. According to unions cited by the same site, the ministry first proposed an increase of around 1%, or about fifteen euros net per month. Jean-Pierre Farandou describes the exercise as a "chemin de crête" between purchasing power and jobs, and warns that a sharp increase could slow hiring. Emmanuel Macron, for his part, is urging industry sectors to relaunch their wage negotiations.

Employers are taking a cautious line. The Medef, according to a union source cited by Selectra, is reportedly opposed to bringing forward the January increase. The argument deserves a hearing: with the economy at a standstill, a sudden rise in labour costs can weigh on small businesses, already weakened by energy bills.

The unions consider the effort far too small. The CFDT is calling for 100 euros net more per month, the CGT for 150 euros. The CGT points out, according to Boursorama, that in 122 of the 200 sectors studied, the bottom of the pay scales was still below the Smic in mid-October. Looking ahead to the presidential election, Public Sénat lists sharply contrasting answers: a Smic of 1,700 euros net for Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Raphaël Glucksmann, tax exemption for hours beyond 35 for Édouard Philippe, exemptions from social contributions for Bruno Retailleau, while Marine Le Pen favours VAT cuts rather than a Smic increase.

Analysis

It must be said plainly: public order is the State's responsibility, and nothing can excuse the looting of 17 October. But public order only holds over time if the social pact holds. Governing three Saturdays in a row through police deployment, with no visible answer on the substance, amounts to treating the symptom while letting the cause grow.

And the cause is documented. When more than half of the sectors studied by the CGT have minimum rates below the minimum wage, this is not only a matter of economic circumstances; it is the sign of collective bargaining that no longer works. The President's appeal to the sectors is right, but it costs nothing and binds no one.

About fifteen euros a month, if the reported option were confirmed, would answer neither the rise in fuel prices nor the sense of downward mobility that is fuelling the mobilisation. Conversely, the 150 euros demanded by the CGT would raise a real question for jobs in very small businesses. Between these two limits there is a path, the one the Gaullist tradition called participation: truly involving employees in the fruits of their work, rather than waiting for the anger to subside on its own.

Conclusion

5 November will be a test. The State could propose a clear boost to the Smic, together with targeted support for small businesses, and above all a simple rule: any sector whose minimum rates remain below the Smic beyond a set deadline would see its reductions in social contributions cut. That would make wage bargaining an obligation, not a prayer. The question is now for the government: does it only want to contain the street, or to answer it?

Article written with the help of artificial intelligence.