Brazil: three days before the runoff, Europe has a lot to lose

The facts

On Sunday 25 October, Brazilians will choose between two candidates separated by almost nothing. In the first round, on 4 October, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, came first with 47% of the vote, ahead of the outgoing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on 45%, AFP reports. The latest Datafolha poll cited by the agency gives 51% to the former and 49% to the latter: a statistical tie, given the margin of error.

As EUobserver recalls, Jair Bolsonaro cannot run: he was sentenced to 27 years in prison for his role in the attempted coup that followed his 2022 defeat. His son, whom franceinfo describes as a far-right candidate, is therefore carrying his camp's colours.

For the past few days, the end of the campaign has also been playing out before the judges. According to AFP, Flávio Bolsonaro's team petitioned the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) on Tuesday to have Lula declared ineligible, accusing him of abuse of power for mass-sending WhatsApp messages promoting the government's record. The president's camp announced a mirror challenge against his opponent's candidacy, citing "algorithmic manipulation" by Meta to his detriment. RFI sums up the situation: each side is now seeking to disqualify the other.

On Monday the TSE gave Meta 24 hours to show that it was treating both candidates equally, or face a fine of around 200,000 dollars a day, according to AFP. According to the Associated Press, the group says it has complied and has introduced human review, within two hours, of any automatic block affecting the campaigns' advertising accounts. Meta acknowledges incidents, including the mistaken deactivation of ads from the Lula camp, but attributes them to technical constraints and denies any political bias.

The positions at stake

The conservative camp campaigned on the economy, security and corruption, EUobserver notes. These themes do not come out of nowhere: insecurity linked to organised crime weighs heavily on the daily lives of millions of Brazilians, and both camps have accused each other of corruption. The argument for renewal must also be heard, facing a president who will soon be 81 and is seeking a fourth term. In foreign policy, according to the analysis published by the Atlantic Council, a victory for Flávio Bolsonaro would bring Brasília closer to Washington: stronger intelligence and security cooperation, possible membership of a regional coalition against the cartels, and a wish to negotiate bilateral agreements more freely, even at the cost of shaking up the Mercosur framework.

Lula, for his part, defends his social record, a stronger role for the federal state in public security and a diplomacy that refuses to pick sides. The Atlantic Council notes that he turned down a critical minerals alliance proposed by Washington in February, that he is betting on the BRICS and on cooperation with Beijing, but also that he championed the signing of the agreement between the European Union and Mercosur.

The election also reaches beyond Brazil's borders. According to AFP, Donald Trump hailed a "beautiful victory" for Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round, without formally endorsing him, while Lula accuses the US government of trying to influence the vote. Brasília also denounced an attempt at interference by Argentine President Javier Milei, who had suggested that Lula could "steal the election".

What Europe has at stake on Sunday

For France and its partners, the stakes are first of all commercial. According to the European Commission, the agreement with Mercosur has been provisionally applied since 1 May 2026, the four countries of the South American bloc having completed their ratification, while full ratification remains suspended pending the opinion of the EU Court of Justice, to which the European Parliament referred it in January. Mercosur is to eventually remove 91% of its customs duties on European products, and French goods exports to these countries amount to 5.56 billion euros, again according to Brussels.

This agreement remains contested in France, notably by farmers. But its environmental guarantees, in particular the chapter reaffirming the implementation of the Paris Agreement, are only worth something if the Brazilian government intends to respect them. On protecting the Amazon as on the fight against climate change, the political colour of the government in Brasília therefore matters as much as the signed text.

The stakes are also democratic. Seeing an electoral court order an American platform to guarantee fairness between candidates should give Europeans pause, six months before our own presidential election. Brazil has chosen to entrust a judge with overseeing the regularity of the digital campaign; Europe has a comparable tool in the Digital Services Act, still too little used.

A demand rather than a preference

It is not for Europeans to choose Brazil's president. But the Union and France can say, from Monday, what they expect from their partner: unreserved respect for the verdict of the ballot box by all camps, faithful implementation of the climate commitments written into the agreement, and cooperation on regulating platforms. One question remains open: is Europe ready to defend its relationship with Brazil as a strategic choice, rather than leave Washington and Beijing alone to fight over its most valuable ally in South America?

Article written with the help of artificial intelligence.