Brazil: Lula or Bolsonaro's son, a runoff Europe cannot watch from afar

On Sunday, October 25, 158 million Brazilian voters will choose between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. Rarely has a runoff seemed so open, and rarely has Europe had so much to lose or gain in a South American election.

A country split in two

In the first round, on October 4, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the former president's son, came first with 47.03% of valid votes against 45.16% for the outgoing president, according to the official count of the Superior Electoral Court reported by The Rio Times. Most polling institutes had nevertheless forecast a narrow lead for Lula.

Since then, the gap has narrowed. According to AFP, as reported by Europe 1, the latest Datafolha poll, published on Thursday, puts the two men in a perfect tie, at 50% each. The polling average compiled by The Rio Times nonetheless gives Flávio Bolsonaro a slight edge, at around 51%.

The end of the campaign is also being played out before the judges. According to AFP, cited by La DH, Lula's team asked the Superior Electoral Court on Wednesday to disqualify his opponent, citing an "algorithmic manipulation" that allegedly benefited the latter on Meta's networks. The day before, Flávio Bolsonaro's lawyers had filed a mirror request, accusing the president of "abuse of power" for spreading content praising his record on WhatsApp. Meta denies the accusations, while having acknowledged technical "incidents" the previous week.

Foreign diplomats posted in Brazil are reportedly discussing a swift recognition of the winner, in order to discourage any premature claim of victory, Reuters reports. No formal plan is said to exist at this stage.

Two Brazils, two worldviews

The arguments of the Bolsonaro camp deserve a hearing. During the first televised debate, on October 18, Flávio Bolsonaro focused his attacks on insecurity and the cost of living, two major concerns for Brazilians, according to AFP. He also raised suspicions of corruption targeting the president's son, nicknamed "Lulinha". His supporters advocate a more bilateral approach to trade and an openly closer relationship with Washington.

Lula, who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, replied by accusing the Bolsonaro family of serving American interests, referring to the tariffs imposed on Brazil by the Trump administration. He also questioned his rival about a corruption investigation into the financing of a film about his father, sentenced in 2025 to 27 years in prison for his role in an attempted coup. Flávio Bolsonaro is also implicated by the website Intercept Brasil, cited by the Peterson Institute, over links with the owner of Banco Master, a bank that collapsed amid fraud allegations. He has not been convicted of anything.

On foreign policy, the gap is clear. The Atlantic Council describes a Lula committed to sovereignty, multilateralism, diversified partnerships and the BRICS. A President Flávio Bolsonaro, by contrast, would seek a bilateral trade agreement with the United States and would join Donald Trump's security initiative known as the "Shield of the Americas".

What Europe has at stake on Sunday

The first stake is trade. The agreement between the European Union and Mercosur has been provisionally applied since May 1 with the countries that had ratified it, including Brazil, according to the European Commission. The European Parliament nevertheless referred it to the Court of Justice of the EU in January, by 334 votes to 324, Toute l'Europe recalls, and all French MEPs had voted for that referral.

Yet, according to an analysis by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation, Flávio Bolsonaro talks of freeing Brazil from the "shackles" of Mercosur in favor of bilateral treaties. The foundation considers his plan vague: withdrawal, suspension or renegotiation, notably of the environmental requirements. A paradox for France: those who oppose the agreement on behalf of our farmers could see a Brazilian president weaken it, but for the wrong reasons, by undermining precisely the climate and health safeguards that Paris was calling for.

The second stake is political. Brazil hosted COP30 in Belém in 2025 and remains a decisive partner for protecting the Amazon and for a multilateralism that does not boil down to alignment with Washington or Beijing. A victory for Flávio Bolsonaro would add a major country to the camp of leaders close to Donald Trump, at a time when Europe is looking for allies to defend international law and the Paris Agreement.

A line for France

It is not for Paris to choose the Brazilians' president. A diplomacy faithful to the Gaullist tradition can set three principles. First, recognize without delay the result proclaimed by Brazil's electoral justice, whoever wins, and state clearly that any challenge outside legal channels would be unacceptable: the memory of the assault on the institutions in Brasília, in January 2023, demands it.

Second, demand that the digital giants be held accountable. If the suspicions of algorithmic interference were confirmed, it would be a warning for European democracies themselves, which the EU Digital Services Act must protect.

Finally, stop thinking of the EU-Mercosur agreement as a simple deal of beef for cars. With Lula or with Flávio Bolsonaro, France will have to defend binding environmental and social clauses, because that is where the fairness of trade is decided.

One question remains: will Europe be able to speak with one voice on Monday morning, or will it leave it to others to tell Brazil what its vote is worth?

Article written with the help of artificial intelligence.