Brazil: Lula narrowly re-elected, Flavio Bolsonaro contests, Europe faces a demanding partner

Brazil has decided, by a narrow margin. On Sunday 25 October, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the second round of the presidential election with 51.76% of the vote against 48.24% for senator Flavio Bolsonaro, according to near-final results relayed by AFP. The gap, around 3.5 points, represents just over four million votes, according to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) count reported by The Rio Times and Latin Times.

An unprecedented victory, a country split in two

At nearly 81, Lula wins a fourth term, a first in the country's history. The achievement is all the more striking as he came second in the first round on 4 October, with 45.16% against 47.03% for his opponent. As AFP points out, Brazil is therefore not following the swing to the right seen in recent months in Argentina, Chile and Colombia.

But the evening did not bring the hoped-for calm. According to the Buenos Aires Times, Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, said it was impossible for him to recognise the result and that he would request the annulment of the election. He contests the two-hour extension of voting ordered in the afternoon by a Supreme Court justice, Cristiano Zanin, following a request from the Lula camp, which cited a shortage of buses in several states. The right-wing candidate sees it as a manoeuvre, even though his own team had also requested an extension in areas affected by rain.

The president of the TSE, Kassio Nunes Marques, confirmed Lula's re-election. According to the Buenos Aires Times, he said the extension had delayed the count without changing the final result, and that no outside interference had been found. Lula is due to take office on 5 January 2027.

The positions at stake

The arguments of the conservative camp deserve a hearing. Changing the hours of a vote on the day itself, by decision of a judge appointed by the outgoing president and formerly his lawyer, legitimately raises questions, and turning to the electoral courts is a right. The right can also point out that it won the legislative elections of 4 October: the Liberal Party of the Bolsonaro family is now the largest group in the Chamber of Deputies, with 121 seats out of 513, according to The Rio Times.

The presidential camp replies that the extension was meant to allow voters who had been prevented from voting to cast their ballot, and that it applied everywhere. According to Latin Times, Lula adopted a conciliatory tone, calling for peace and national unity.

A heavy precedent remains. In 2022, Jair Bolsonaro also refused to accept a narrow defeat, before being convicted for plotting a coup, the Buenos Aires Times recalls. Turning a legal challenge into the starting point of a lasting delegitimisation would be a risk for Brazilian democracy.

What this changes for France and Europe

For Europe, the result has concrete significance. The trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur, signed on 17 January in Paraguay, is being applied provisionally, according to The Rio Times, following the announcement made by Ursula von der Leyen at the end of February and reported by the agricultural outlet Pleinchamp. Yet in January the European Parliament had referred it to the Court of Justice of the EU, by 334 votes to 324, to check its compatibility with the treaties, as Le Club des juristes explains. France opposed it in the Council, alongside Ireland, Poland, Hungary and Austria, without forming a blocking minority.

With Lula, Brussels keeps a counterpart committed to multilateralism, but one who firmly defends Brazilian sovereignty in the face of Washington. EUobserver noted before the vote that Amazon deforestation was halved during his third term, contributing to a 16.7% fall in the country's emissions in 2024.

Our analysis

This election is first and foremost good news for those who believe in international law and in the fight against climate change. A Brazil that protects the Amazon and refuses to take one side against another remains a valuable partner for a France that has defended an independent diplomacy since General de Gaulle.

But this victory does not resolve the underlying disagreement over Mercosur. The concerns of French farmers are well founded: competition on meat, health standards, pesticides. Brussels in fact suspended certain Brazilian imports of animal products in September, for lack of sufficient guarantees, according to EUobserver. The right response is neither rupture nor resignation, but firmness: effective mirror clauses and real controls.

An open question

Lula will govern with a Congress dominated by the right and a country divided almost exactly in half. Will France seize this moment to offer Brazil a renewed partnership, founded on the climate and social justice, while finally obtaining serious guarantees for its farmers?

Article written with the help of artificial intelligence.