Brazil: Lula re-elected, Flávio Bolsonaro leaves the country, Europe must defend the verdict of the ballot box

Three days after the second round of Brazil's presidential election, the loser is no longer in Brazil. Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, crossed the Argentine border during the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, before flying to Ecuador. Meanwhile, Donald Trump is casting doubt on the integrity of the vote, and Europe must say clearly which side it stands on.

The facts

On 25 October, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was re-elected for a fourth term with 51.79% of the vote, according to figures reported by Agence Europe. His lead stands at nearly 4.4 million votes, according to Euronews. Flávio Bolsonaro, who came first in the first round, has not acknowledged his defeat and has called for the vote to be annulled. He disputes in particular the two-hour extension of polling station opening hours, ordered by a Supreme Court justice because of transport delays and heavy rain. Al Jazeera points out that both camps had themselves requested this extra time. His party, the Liberal Party, eventually recognised Lula's victory.

On Monday, the senator said he had never thought of leaving the country and promised to lead the opposition. A court order nevertheless required him to hand over his passports, for fear he might flee. According to a police source quoted by AFP, he did not do so, and his documents, including his diplomatic passport, were cancelled on Tuesday. According to Argentina's migration directorate, he crossed the border by road with his wife and two daughters, carrying valid travel documents, then boarded a private flight bound for Guayaquil. His final destination remains unknown.

Flávio Bolsonaro is the subject of several investigations, including one into alleged corruption and money laundering linked to the financing of a film about his father. He denies any wrongdoing, and these proceedings have not led to any conviction at this stage. His father, for his part, is serving, under house arrest, a 27-year prison sentence for trying to cling to power after his 2022 defeat, as France 24 recalls.

The positions at stake

In Washington, Donald Trump denounced on Monday, without providing evidence, "rigged" elections, France 24 reports. The American president had received Flávio Bolsonaro at the White House in May, and a State Department official said visas would be granted to the senator and his family.

The arguments of this camp deserve a hearing. The extension of voting, even if requested by both candidates, could fuel suspicion in a close election. And the campaign was marked by tensions over social media: Lula accused Meta of restricting the reach of his content, and the company acknowledged "technical problems" that penalised the left online, according to AFP. On Tuesday, a Supreme Court justice ordered an investigation into possible foreign financing of the Bolsonaro campaign and into possible online manipulation.

Lula, for his part, called his opponent's departure "shameful", saying he should have stayed to answer to the courts. In Europe, congratulations came quickly. Ursula von der Leyen hailed a victory for democracy and multilateralism, and António Costa pledged to deepen ties. Emmanuel Macron called for strengthening the strategic partnership between the two countries in the service of a fairer world, according to Euronews.

The analysis

What is at stake in Brazil goes beyond Flávio Bolsonaro himself. A democracy is judged by the way its losers accept the verdict. The Liberal Party has done so, and that is to its credit. But leaving the country in defiance of a court decision, after promising to comply with it, undermines the very idea that the law applies to everyone, the powerful included. No one can prejudge the outcome of the investigations. One can, however, demand that the Brazilian justice system be allowed to do its work.

Washington's attitude raises a broader problem. When a historic ally of Europe questions, without evidence, an election validated by the institutions of a sovereign country, then offers hospitality to a politician under judicial investigation, it places ideological affinity above the law. This is precisely the logic that the Gaullist tradition has always rejected: one deals with states and their institutions, not with clans.

Europe also has concrete interests. The trade agreement with Mercosur has been provisionally applied since 1 May, according to Euronews, and Brussels feared that a Bolsonaro victory might call it into question. But a solid partnership cannot rest on trade alone. The agreement remains contested in France, notably by farmers, and the European Parliament has referred it to the Court of Justice of the EU. Lula's re-election offers an opportunity to rebalance the relationship around what truly brings the two shores together: protecting the Amazon, fighting disinformation, defending multilateral institutions.

Conclusion

France, which shares a border with Brazil in French Guiana, has a particular voice to make heard. It could propose that the Union and Brazil launch a structured dialogue on electoral integrity and the responsibility of the major digital platforms, two issues on which Europeans themselves have a great deal to lose. The question is simple: will Europe be able to defend the verdict of the ballot box elsewhere with the same firmness as at home?

Article written with the help of artificial intelligence.