The right: Retailleau and Lisnard promise a single candidate, now they must say on what platform

The facts

The lunch took place on Wednesday 21 October in Paris, at the initiative of the mayor of Béziers, Robert Ménard. For about an hour and a half, according to the JDD, Bruno Retailleau, president of Les Républicains and his party's designated candidate, and David Lisnard, mayor of Cannes and founder of Nouvelle Énergie, discussed a joint candidacy for the presidential election. The next day, Geoffroy Didier, Bruno Retailleau's spokesman, confirmed that this option had been raised, as reported by Entrevue.

In the JDD of Sunday 25 October, Robert Ménard went further: according to him, the two men reportedly promised not to both be at the starting line.

They made a commitment that they would not both run — Robert Ménard, in the JDD

At this stage, the two men have not publicly formalised this commitment. The weekly mentions the designation of a single candidate by April.

The polls explain this urgency. In the OpinionWay survey for CNews, Europe 1 and the JDD, conducted on 21 and 22 October among 973 registered voters, Marine Le Pen reaches 36% of first-round voting intentions, ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon (16%), Raphaël Glucksmann (13%) and Édouard Philippe (12%). David Lisnard and Bruno Retailleau are each at 6%. The Ipsos-BVA barometer published by Le Parisien on 24 October, cited by France Mag, puts the mayor of Cannes at 6.5% and the LR president at 5.5% in one of its scenarios. Even combined, their scores remain far from qualifying for the second round.

The positions

On method, the two camps do not say the same thing. David Lisnard has for months championed the idea of a primary, which in his view would give the winner democratic legitimacy. Bruno Retailleau no longer rules it out: as early as late August, he said on France 2, according to LCP, that he was "afraid of no competition", while doubting that a primary would ever take place. According to the JDD, he would consider the exercise meaningless if Édouard Philippe refused to take part, and would demand a charter obliging the losers to back the winner, whereas David Lisnard would like to keep his freedom.

Their supporters argue that the two men share the essentials: cutting public spending, firmness on security and immigration. The JDD qualifies this picture: Bruno Retailleau is said to be more conservative, David Lisnard more liberal. The LR president's entourage, again according to the weekly, regards the Cannes mayor's breakthrough in the polls as temporary.

A third voice has joined the discussion. Éric Ciotti, president of the UDR and an ally of the Rassemblement national, said on Europe 1 and CNews that these two candidacies amounted to mere token bids, and invited the two men to join Marine Le Pen, according to remarks reported by 21news. According to Entrevue, both men instead assert their political independence.

The analysis

This approach deserves some credit: it starts from a clear-sighted observation. Two candidates at 6% each carry little weight against a far right that exceeds a third of voting intentions. Fragmentation has already cost the republican right dearly; its candidate failed to reach 5% in 2022. Seeking agreement rather than competition is a mark of responsibility, and it would be unfair to brush it aside.

But unity is not a programme. The debate today is almost entirely about procedure: primary or not, scope, charter, timetable. On substance, what brings the two men together, cutting public spending, is also what raises the most questions. The country is emerging from a month of anger over the cost of living, secondary school pupils are demanding teachers and university places, and public services are stretched to breaking point in many areas. A right that spoke only of budget cuts would leave a large share of the French people without an answer. The Gaullist tradition never set sound public finances against social cohesion: social security, economic planning and worker participation were also policies of the governing right.

Éric Ciotti's call at least has the merit of clearly posing the question the republican right must settle. Joining the RN would mean giving up what defines it: a sense of the State, attachment to Europe and to international law, the rejection of extremes. On this point, no ambiguity should be allowed, neither now nor on the evening of the first round.

Then there is the Édouard Philippe question. Credited with 12% by OpinionWay, he is the best-placed candidate of the centre and the right, even though the same poll shows him beaten by Marine Le Pen in the second round, 44% to 56%. A primary limited to deciding between Bruno Retailleau and David Lisnard would settle a rivalry, not the underlying problem: the division of the republican camp in the face of the far right.

Conclusion

If there is to be a primary, it will only make sense under three conditions. It must be broad, open to all who claim to belong to the republican right and centre. It must be preceded by a genuine debate on the programme, in which social justice, schools, hospitals and the ecological transition carry as much weight as the debt. And each participant must commit in writing to supporting the winner and to refusing any deal with the Rassemblement national. One question remains: will the governing right be able to convince the French that it wants to repair the country, and not merely cut its spending?

Article written with the help of artificial intelligence.