Romania: a government at last, but a six-month reprieve in the face of the far right

After more than five months of crisis, Romania once again has a fully empowered government. On Tuesday 20 October, parliament approved Luca Niculescu's cabinet with 280 votes, when 233 were required, according to AFP as reported by RTBF and to the Reuters news agency. The relief is real in Brussels as in Paris. But the majority backing this government looks more like a truce than a shared project.

The facts

The deadlock dates back to early May. As Le Grand Continent recalls, the pro-European government of liberal Ilie Bolojan was toppled on 5 May by a no-confidence motion passed jointly by the PSD social democrats and the far-right AUR. According to AFP, the PSD had left the coalition over disagreements on budget policy and austerity measures.

Centrist President Nicusor Dan then failed three times to get a prime minister approved. Luca Niculescu, 55, is his fourth attempt. This non-partisan diplomat, a former journalist and former editor-in-chief of RFI Romania according to AFP, was Romania's ambassador to France from 2016 to 2022, Le Courrier des Balkans notes.

His government is a minority one. It brings together PSD ministers, the party obtaining eleven portfolios according to Le Courrier des Balkans, and technocrats. The PNL liberals and the party of the Hungarian minority, the UDMR, do not sit in government but voted for its approval. According to Reuters, they have committed not to file a no-confidence motion before March 2027. The PSD, for its part, will reassess its support in six months.

The positions at stake

The new head of government has opted for modesty. Before the vote, he said, according to Reuters:

I am not asking for a blank check. — Luca Niculescu

Ilie Bolojan, who chairs the PNL, spoke of a "vote of necessity", Le Grand Continent reports, accusing the PSD and AUR of bringing down his government without offering a viable solution. For the liberals, the urgency is budgetary: Reuters indicates that all the major rating agencies are threatening to downgrade the country, currently on the last rung of investment grade, if a deficit-reducing 2027 budget is not adopted in December.

On the other side, the AUR is calling for early elections. The nationalist party claims a form of popular legitimacy: it leads the polls with nearly 40% of voting intentions, according to both AFP and Reuters. President Dan ruled out that option, arguing that a new vote would prolong instability and worsen the state of public finances. He also ruled out any far-right participation in government. Reuters points out that the AUR opposes Brussels, defence procurement and aid to Ukraine.

The analysis

The AUR's argument deserves to be taken seriously: a democracy cannot indefinitely govern against the leading party in the polls. But polls are not elections, and the parliament elected in December 2024 holds a mandate running until 2028. Forming a majority within that assembly is part of the normal functioning of institutions, not a way of bypassing the people.

The real danger lies elsewhere. Romania must bring its deficit below 3% of GDP by 2030, in line with its commitment to Brussels under the excessive deficit procedure. According to Reuters, this deficit exceeded 9% in 2024 and is expected to reach 6.2% this year. At the same time, the agency stresses that pensions have been frozen for two years because of budget constraints. It is precisely on this ground that the Bolojan government fell.

A country where pensioners see their purchasing power melt away while the far right promises to break with Brussels offers ideal ground for resentment. Fiscal discipline is necessary, but discipline perceived as unfair feeds exactly the forces it claims to contain. Luca Niculescu's programme, which relies on fighting tax fraud and better tax collection according to Le Grand Continent, is heading in the right direction: making those who escape taxation pay first, rather than those who depend on public spending.

The stakes go beyond Bucharest. Romania is a pillar of NATO's eastern flank, where France has led an allied battlegroup since 2022. Le Grand Continent reports that seven commercial ships have been attacked off Romania and Bulgaria since early October, and that two attack drones were shot down on 17 October by Romanian F-16s. Political scientist Sergiu Miscoiu, quoted by AFP, warns that the prime minister will "largely have to play the firefighter".

Conclusion

The reprieve won on Tuesday will only be worth something if it is used. For France, which has close historical and military ties with Romania, the lesson is clear: a European democracy is not protected by parliamentary arrangements alone, but by proving that Europe also protects those who bear the cost of the effort.

One proposal stands out: the European Union should accompany Romania's recovery with targeted flexibility, taking full account of the defence effort made on the eastern flank and making its support conditional on a fair sharing of the burden. Otherwise, the question is no longer whether the far right will come to power in Bucharest, but when.

Article written with the help of artificial intelligence.