Serbia, follow-up: record turnout against Vučić, Europe awaited on the aftermath

Queues more than a kilometre long in Belgrade, lines outside the 93 polling stations opened abroad, from Paris to Chicago: on this Sunday, 25 October, Serbians went to the polls in numbers rarely seen. AFP describes the vote as an "anti-Vucic referendum". Polling stations close at 8 pm, and the first partial results are expected around 10 pm local time, according to Reuters. This article was written before their release.

The facts

According to estimates from the CeSID and Ipsos institutes, relayed by Le Courrier des Balkans, turnout stood at 27.3% at 11 am, compared with 15.1% at the same time in the December 2023 parliamentary elections. At 2 pm it was 46.4%, around fourteen points higher than three years ago. Some 6.45 million voters were called to choose between 18 lists.

As RFI recalls, this early vote was triggered by Aleksandar Vučić himself. In power since 2014, he dissolved Parliament in September and then stepped down as President of the Republic to lead the list of his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) and seek the head of government. Facing him, the student list, led by cardiologist Ilija Srdanović, grew out of the protest movement sparked by the collapse of the canopy at Novi Sad railway station, which killed sixteen people in November 2024. A poll by the NSPM institute, carried out in early October and cited by Le Courrier des Balkans, put the two camps neck and neck, with a slight lead for the students, within the margin of error.

The day was not without incidents. The observation organisation CRTA says it found ballots being photographed in a quarter of the polling stations observed, and irregularities that could indicate attempts to control the vote in 9% of them. Le Courrier des Balkans also reports suspicions of vote-buying in Novi Sad and in the locality of Veternik, as well as disrupted polling stations in Doljevac and Pančevo. These reports have yet to be confirmed by the electoral authorities and by the OSCE mission, whose preliminary findings are expected on Monday 26 October.

The positions at stake

After voting, Aleksandar Vučić sought to reassure about the outcome of the vote.

"If we lose, we will acknowledge the will of the voters" — Aleksandar Vučić, quoted by RFI

He added, according to the same source, that in the event of victory no one would take it away from him. The leader defends his record on motorways, railways and hospitals, promises higher pensions and public sector wages, and rejects accusations of corruption and of spying on the opposition. He accuses the students of being funded from Croatia and Montenegro, which the movement denies.

His supporters point to the country's growth and the stability he has ensured in a fragile region. It is an argument that deserves to be heard: Serbia has attracted significant investment and its infrastructure has improved.

On the student side, the tone is that of an expected change of power.

"We will legitimately elect a new government in Serbia" — Ilija Srdanović, quoted by RFI

The list's programme focuses mainly on fighting corruption and on education, much less on foreign policy, RFI notes. And it is still unclear who would become Prime Minister in the event of victory.

The analysis

Such high turnout is first of all good news for Serbian democracy. After two years of protests, part of society has chosen to turn the anger of the street into ballots. That is the path every democracy should hope for.

But the quality of an election is not measured by queues alone. Observers from CRTA and the OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions had warned, before the vote, about the use of state resources for the benefit of the ruling party and about pressure on opposition candidates. According to Le Courrier des Balkans, more than 500,000 voters are reportedly registered without a precise address. If the result is close, these weaknesses will weigh heavily on the recognition of the verdict.

For Europe, the stakes are direct. Serbia is a candidate to join the Union, which remains its leading trading partner, while maintaining close ties with China and Russia, its main gas supplier, RFI recalls. Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos told the European Parliament in September, according to Agence Europe, that Serbians would have the opportunity to decide their path, and that progress towards the Union would depend on the next government.

France, which has a long-standing friendship with Serbia, bears a particular responsibility. It cannot settle for a perfunctory statement. It must say, together with its partners, that respecting the result, whatever it may be, is the condition for any continuation of the accession process. This is not interference: it is the very substance of the criteria Belgrade accepted when it applied to join the Union.

Conclusion

Whoever wins, the Serbia that wakes up on Monday will no longer be quite the same: a generation has shown that it still believes in the ballot box. It is up to Europe to live up to that trust. A simple proposal: that the Union explicitly make the continuation of negotiations conditional on an orderly transition and on the implementation of the OSCE's recommendations, and that it announce this even before the results are declared. The question remains open: will Brussels dare to treat the rule of law in Belgrade with the same rigour as in Budapest?

Article written with the help of artificial intelligence.