Serbia, follow-up: Vučić concedes defeat, now Europe must keep its word

After fourteen years at the top of the Serbian state, Aleksandar Vučić acknowledged defeat on Sunday evening, about an hour and a half after polls closed, according to CBS News. The Student List, born of nearly two years of mobilisation against corruption, is expected to emerge from the snap parliamentary elections with an absolute majority.

The facts

According to AFP, the outgoing leader himself admitted to the nation that it was "clear that we have lost these elections". He announced between 135 and 140 seats for the Student List, against around 105 for his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), in a 250-seat Parliament. An absolute majority requires 126 seats.

Independent projections point the same way, with discrepancies that official results will have to resolve. According to Reuters, the CeSID-Ipsos sample would give 138 seats to the student list and 104 to the SNS. Euronews reports an estimate of 52.9% of the vote and 141 seats, while the CRTA observatory reportedly puts it at 51.2% and 134 seats. Aleksandar Vučić mentioned around 1.7 million votes for his camp and 2.2 million for his opponents, CBS News reports.

Turnout reportedly neared 70%, the highest level since the break-up of Yugoslavia, according to Reuters. AFP recalls that the previous record, around 70%, dated back to the 2000 election that drove Slobodan Milošević from power.

This vote is the culmination of a movement born in 2024, after the collapse of the canopy at Novi Sad railway station, which killed 16 people. The students blamed the tragedy on endemic corruption in public works. Aleksandar Vučić, president since 2017, had resigned in early September to lead his camp's campaign himself and run for prime minister, according to AFP.

The positions at stake

The outgoing camp did not hide its bitterness. According to CBS News, Aleksandar Vučić blamed his defeat on independent media, on interference by European countries he did not name and on an "American deep state". He nevertheless called on his supporters to stay calm, saying he wanted "no unrest, no killings", according to remarks relayed by the international press. He deserves credit on this point: by quickly accepting the verdict, he spared the country a night of crisis.

His supporters will also point out that he retains a solid electoral base, which saw him as a capable leader, and that his party remains the country's largest organised force. With more than a third of the vote, the SNS is not disappearing.

On the other side, the Student List has no students among its candidates, but experts, athletes, farmers and artists, according to CBS News. Cardiologist Ilija Srdanović, presented as its lead candidate, summed up the mood of the evening, quoted by AFP:

Serbia has won, as we promised. — Ilija Srdanović

Professor Radomir Šaičić, speaking on behalf of the students, set the course according to Reuters: celebrate tonight, build tomorrow.

In Brussels, the reaction was immediate. According to Reuters and Euronews, Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa welcomed the victory and said they stood ready to support reforms on the rule of law, media freedom and the fight against corruption. Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos stated that "the door to the EU is open". Hungary's Péter Magyar, who defeated Viktor Orbán in the spring, assured the winners of his country's support.

The analysis

This vote confirms a trend that Hungary had already illustrated in April: in Central Europe and the Balkans, a mobilised youth can defeat long-entrenched governments at the ballot box. It is good news for all those who believe, in the Gaullist tradition, that a people's sovereignty is expressed first and foremost through a free vote.

But caution is needed. Independent observers reported dozens of irregularities during the day, according to CBS News, and the official results have yet to be proclaimed. Above all, the Student List's position on the European Union remains ambiguous, notes Euronews, which considers it less openly pro-European than the Tisza party in Hungary. Reuters points out that the winners have said little about foreign policy, while Russia remains the country's main gas supplier, China invests heavily there and the Union is its leading trading partner.

For France and Europe, the stakes are therefore twofold. First, this victory must not be mistaken for automatic alignment: the movement was born of a demand for justice and integrity, not of a geopolitical slogan. Second, the rule of law must not be sacrificed in the name of regional stability, a temptation Europe will have to resist. It will be credible if it supports independent justice, free media and public services worthy of the name, the very ones the students called into question after the Novi Sad tragedy.

What now?

Forming a government, the transition within the administration and the Kosovo question will quickly put the newly elected members to the test. Paris, which has a long-standing relationship with Belgrade, has every interest in supporting this transition without paternalism. A simple proposal: that France argue, with its partners, for a European programme to support justice and public procurement reforms, tied to concrete accession milestones. The door is open, said Marta Kos. It remains to be seen whether the Union will keep it open when the difficult compromises come.

Article written with the help of artificial intelligence.