Ukraine, continued: after Oslo, Putin receives Witkoff and Europe is left on the doorstep

The day after the Oslo talks, the diplomacy surrounding the war in Ukraine moved to a different stage. On Wednesday 21 October, US envoy Steve Witkoff was received by Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg, for nearly three hours according to AFP, as reported by Europe 1. On the same day, in Strasbourg, Ursula von der Leyen set out a clear line for the European Union. Between these two scenes, one question keeps coming back: what role will be left for Europe in a settlement that is increasingly being negotiated without it?

The facts

According to AFP, after the meeting the Kremlin said it was ready to resume three-way negotiations with Washington and Kyiv around 10 November. Jared Kushner took part in the discussion by video link. The Kremlin's foreign policy adviser, Yuri Ushakov, said that the Ukrainian and European proposals presented in Oslo the day before did not contain "much". He also raised the possibility of a meeting between Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit, scheduled in China in November.

According to the news site Axios, Steve Witkoff came to present an updated American proposal to end the war. The White House hoped Moscow would prove more accommodating after the lifting of US sanctions on Russian diesel sales. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak indeed announced, according to Reuters, that a first tanker carrying 40,000 tonnes of diesel would leave for the United States on Thursday.

On the Ukrainian side, Volodymyr Zelensky told Fox News, according to the ANI agency, that Kyiv was ready to freeze the conflict along the current front line before entering talks, and then to ask the Americans and Europeans for security guarantees. He does, however, reject any surrender of territory. According to AFP, Moscow is for now rejecting such a freeze and is demanding an agreement on substance first, notably the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the rest of the Donetsk region.

On the ground, the war goes on. According to Reuters, four people were killed overnight in Russian strikes on energy facilities in four Ukrainian regions.

Where the parties stand

The camp in favour of a quick negotiation has its arguments, and they deserve a hearing. The Ukrainian population is exhausted, as Volodymyr Zelensky himself acknowledges. Every month of war costs lives and infrastructure. For the Trump administration, offering economic gestures to Moscow would be the price of getting back to the table. Donald Trump has also said, according to Axios, that he doubts the Ukrainian president really wants the war to end.

Kyiv and its European allies see things differently. They fear that easing sanctions before any agreement would reward the aggressor and encourage it to harden its demands. According to Axios, Secretary of State Marco Rubio assured Kyiv that Donald Trump had not ordered any measure intended to harm Ukraine, while warning that some deliveries of Patriot interceptors paid for by NATO countries could be delayed. AFP also reports that the European Commission asked SpaceX to restore Ukraine's full access to the Starlink network.

Brussels, for its part, has chosen firmness. Speaking before the European Parliament, Ursula von der Leyen stated, according to the LaPresse agency:

these sanctions will remain in place until Russia ends the war — Ursula von der Leyen

She added that Russia was not a reliable energy supplier, since it has already used its deliveries as a means of blackmail.

Analysis

What is taking shape in St Petersburg is a two-speed diplomacy. Washington and Moscow set the timetable, while Ukraine and Europe react. When the Kremlin brushes aside the Oslo proposals, it signals that it prefers to deal directly with the White House. The proposed date, after the US midterm elections of 3 November, is probably no coincidence, even though nothing makes it possible to say what guided that choice.

For France and Europe, the stakes are not abstract. The security of the continent is being decided in Ukraine. A ceasefire without solid guarantees could be no more than a pause before a new offensive. And it is the Europeans who will bear most of the financial effort. According to Politico, cited by the Just Security website, the Union is seeking to close a funding need of around 70 billion euros for Ukraine next year and intends to call on Canada and the United Kingdom. The European Council of 15 and 16 October also adopted conclusions devoted to support for Kyiv.

The Gaullist tradition reminds us that a power that pays without weighing in ends up on the receiving end. Paying for the reconstruction and defence of Ukraine without a seat at the table where peace is decided would be the worst of all configurations. But firmness alone is not enough. We must also think of those who bear the cost of this war: Ukrainian civilians deprived of electricity as winter approaches, and European households exposed to energy prices. Solidarity with Ukraine must go hand in hand with solidarity within Europe itself, or it will lose its popular support.

Conclusion

The freeze of the front line proposed by Kyiv offers a basis for discussion that Europe would do well to defend, provided it comes with credible security guarantees and respect for international law, which prohibits the acquisition of territory by force. One question remains that Paris, Berlin and Brussels can no longer avoid: is Europe ready to demand a seat at the negotiating table in November, and to give itself the political and financial means to obtain it?

Article written with the help of artificial intelligence.