In Oslo, Europe tries to keep Ukraine at the table as Trump changes course

The facts

On Tuesday 20 October in Oslo, Volodymyr Zelensky began a series of talks with US special envoy Steve Witkoff. The meeting is hosted by Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Finnish President Alexander Stubb, according to the Norwegian government, which has announced a joint press conference at the end of the discussions. Jared Kushner, Donald Trump's son-in-law, was due to take part remotely for health reasons, according to Radio Free Europe.

The Europeans were not left at the door. According to Euronews and the Kyiv Independent, representatives of the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Poland, as well as the European Union and NATO, were expected. The European Commission confirmed it had been invited. According to RTBF, citing the American website Axios, these wider talks aim to prepare a peace proposal to be presented in Moscow, where Steve Witkoff then hopes to meet Vladimir Putin. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he hoped such a meeting would take place very soon.

The meeting comes at the lowest point in relations between Kyiv and Washington. On Monday, Donald Trump said it was time for someone else to negotiate on Ukraine's behalf, RTBF and Radio Free Europe report. On 9 October, he had announced a deal with Vladimir Putin on deliveries of Russian diesel. As Le Grand Continent details, the US Treasury granted a general licence authorising these imports until 7 April 2027, an exemption of unprecedented length since 2022. Volodymyr Zelensky saw it as an unjustified gift to the Kremlin.

Then there is the question of weapons. According to a Belga agency dispatch carried by La Libre, the Ukrainian president told US senators on Monday that the Pentagon was delaying the delivery of missiles already paid for by European countries under the PURL programme, pending a signature from Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth.

The missiles are ready. They could already be in Ukraine. — Volodymyr Zelensky, quoted by Belga

Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted that these delays were not deliberate, the Kyiv Independent reports. Washington also denies having changed its intelligence-sharing policy.

The positions at stake

The US administration has its arguments, and they deserve a hearing. Donald Trump blames Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries for pushing up fuel prices, a few weeks before the midterm elections. According to Al Jazeera, the White House is seeking to bring down energy prices that soared after the war against Iran. A US official quoted by Axios believes Volodymyr Zelensky miscalculated by continuing these strikes. Seen from Washington, the priority would be to get out of a costly war, even if that means talking directly with Moscow, and even with Beijing: Donald Trump says he is ready to meet Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, but first to discuss denuclearisation.

Kyiv replies that giving in on refineries without anything in return would amount to disarming Ukraine in the face of a Russia that, for its part, is not easing the pressure. The facts at least partly bear this out: according to Al Jazeera, Russian strikes on energy facilities in the Odesa region left more than 32,000 families without electricity on Tuesday. According to Euronews, Kyiv reportedly proposed a pause in strikes in exchange for more Patriot interceptors.

The analysis

The Oslo meeting says a great deal about Europe's place. Europe pays, literally, for part of the American weapons destined for Ukraine, but it does not decide when they are delivered. According to Volodymyr Zelensky, quoted by Belga, European countries are reportedly ready to hand over Patriots from their own stocks and are waiting for Washington's authorisation to do so. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, for his part, acknowledged that Poland had no Patriots left to supply, the Kyiv Independent notes. This should worry Paris as much as Warsaw: a European defence that depends on a signature at the Pentagon is not a sovereign defence.

The diesel deal raises another question, that of consistency. Since February 2023 the European Union has maintained an embargo on Russian refined petroleum products, Le Grand Continent recalls. If Washington reopens the door, European sanctions lose some of their force, and Moscow is rewarded without having conceded anything. The same outlet also considers the effect on prices likely to be limited, as Russian refineries are running well below capacity. The gain for American motorists would therefore be uncertain, while the diplomatic cost is very real.

This is not about rejecting all negotiation on principle. The Gaullist tradition has always preferred dialogue, even with an adversary, to escalation. But a lasting peace requires that the victim of aggression is not pushed away from the table, and that international law remains the compass. That Oslo was organised at Kyiv's request, as Jonas Gahr Støre indicated according to the Kyiv Independent, shows that Ukraine is looking to Europeans to keep it there.

Conclusion

The presence of Europeans in Oslo is good news, but it is not enough. If France and its partners want to weigh on the outcome of this war, they will have to speed up European air defence production and speak with one voice on energy sanctions. Otherwise, peace in Ukraine risks being negotiated between Washington and Moscow, with Europe paying the bill without writing the terms. Are the Twenty-Seven ready to give themselves the means to do so?

Article written with the help of artificial intelligence.