Alberta: three quarters say no to secession, a lesson for Europe

The facts

On Monday, October 19, voters in Alberta, the oil-producing province of western Canada, were asked to decide on ten questions. The most closely watched concerned the province's future: remain within Canada, or begin the legal process leading to a binding referendum on separation. According to preliminary results reported by Al Jazeera, about 76% of voters chose to remain, against 24% in favour of opening that process. More than 1.8 million ballots had been counted by then, covering 81% of polling stations, according to PBS NewsHour, which relies on unofficial figures from Elections Alberta. Franceinfo describes a very broad rejection.

These figures remain provisional. Elections Alberta, the province's electoral authority, states that official results will only be published on October 29, after verification of an entirely manual count.

The vote was not a direct vote on independence, and its critics had nicknamed it a "referendum on a referendum", PBS notes. It was nonetheless the first time Albertans had been consulted on the question of separation.

The positions at stake

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who grew up in Alberta, welcomed a "clear choice" in favour of unity, according to AFP and Al Jazeera. He nevertheless cautioned against treating all supporters of the process as separatists, since some of them mainly wanted to express their anger at Ottawa, PBS reports. According to Global News, he now intends to move forward in a spirit of cooperative federalism, notably on immigration.

The province's premier, conservative Danielle Smith, who opposes independence but organised the vote under pressure from separatists within her own party, hailed, according to PBS, a vote for a stronger Alberta in a united Canada. On the separatist side, Jeffrey Rath, a leading figure of the Alberta Prosperity Project, insists the fight goes on and wants Danielle Smith removed as leader of the United Conservative Party, PBS reports.

The arguments of those favouring separation deserve a hearing. Alberta holds the world's fourth-largest proven oil reserves, and some of its residents believe the province has been held back by federal climate policy. A voter quoted by PBS says Alberta has been treated like a "colony". The unease is real: on the other questions, voters reportedly approved, according to partial results published by Global News, greater provincial control to reduce immigration (about 59%) and restricting certain public services to citizens and permanent residents (about 57%).

The analysis: when interference backfires on its authors

The vote took place under Washington's insistent gaze. According to Al Jazeera, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described Alberta as a "natural partner" of the United States, and Elon Musk wrote that the province should separate. The outlet specifies that this is not an official position of the US government. PBS, for its part, links the result to Donald Trump's trade war and his threats to make Canada the 51st American state, which have rallied Canadians around their country.

The lesson applies beyond the Atlantic. When a foreign power, even an allied one, encourages the fragmentation of a state, it can provoke the opposite of what it hopes for: a surge of national cohesion. For anyone who claims the Gaullist heritage, this comes as no surprise. Sovereignty cannot be decreed; it rests on citizens' trust in their shared institutions.

But the result also says something less comfortable. A quarter of voters wanted to open the door to secession, and majorities appear to have backed measures restricting access to health care or education for non-permanent residents. Unity achieved as a reflex against an outside threat is not enough. It must be extended through concrete solidarity between regions, public services open to all, and an ecological transition that does not abandon territories dependent on fossil fuels. This is exactly the challenge facing our own industrial heartlands.

And what about Europe?

The timing gives this vote a European dimension. Leaders of the European Union and Canada are due to meet in Montreal on October 29 and 30, according to Le Brief, with António Costa and Ursula von der Leyen expected to attend. In mid-September, the Commission president proposed making Canada the Union's first "associate member", La Voce di New York reports. Before the European Parliament, Mark Carney welcomed the ambition without adopting the term, citing critical raw materials, defence and energy security. Donald Trump called the idea "ridiculous" and threatened the Union with tariffs.

A fractured Canada would have been a weakened partner. A united Canada, which shares with Europe a commitment to multilateralism and international law, is a valuable ally at a time when the transatlantic relationship is under strain. France, bound to Quebec by a special relationship since General de Gaulle's visit in 1967, knows how sensitive questions of Canadian unity are. It must respect Canadians' choices, while refusing to let other powers claim to decide in their place.

Conclusion

The Montreal summit offers an opportunity to turn sympathy into concrete cooperation: energy, critical minerals, defence, research. France could champion a partnership that links energy trade to shared climate commitments, so that Alberta sees Europe as a market rather than a threat. One question remains: will the Union, this time, manage to speak with one voice in the face of pressure from Washington?

Article written with the help of artificial intelligence.