EU budget 2028-2034: Costa takes charge, and France must defend more than its CAP

Costa speeds up as the timetable tightens

Speaking before the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Wednesday 21 October, European Council President António Costa reported on the summit of 15 and 16 October. On the Union's next multiannual budget, covering 2028 to 2034, he repeated that the Twenty-Seven remained determined to reach a deal by the end of the year, according to the text of his speech published by the Council.

"It is essentially a political choice about the Europe we want to build together" — António Costa

According to the news site Eunews, his cabinet is starting two weeks of bilateral meetings with the delegations of every member state. They will focus first on new own resources, meaning revenue collected directly by the Union rather than paid in from national budgets. The aim: to present a new compromise, with figures, before the extraordinary summit called for 26 November in Brussels. According to Agence Europe, an informal meeting is due to take place in Dublin on 13 November, and leaders hope to seal a deal at the European Council of 17 and 18 December.

A gap of several hundred billion

The starting point is the Commission's proposal: nearly 2,000 billion euros over seven years, or 1.26% of the Union's gross national income, according to Toute l'Europe. The current budget, for 2021-2027, amounts to about 1,300 billion, Reuters recalls.

The so-called "frugal" countries consider this ambition out of reach. In June, an internal German government document seen by Reuters called for a cut of around 400 billion euros. In August, six net contributors (Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland, Sweden) demanded a reduction of "several hundred billion" and rejected any new joint borrowing, again according to Reuters. After the October summit, Chancellor Friedrich Merz said his country could not finance an increase of nearly 50%, reports the Banque des Territoires.

On 10 October, the Irish presidency of the Council tabled a compromise cutting the envelope by around 140 to 160 billion euros depending on the method of calculation, according to Toute l'Europe and Agence Europe. The frugal countries still find it insufficient and the European Parliament has rejected it, while the seventeen "friends of cohesion", attached to regional and agricultural funds, gave it a rather favourable reception, according to Agence Europe.

France's position, caught in the crossfire

France is the Union's second-largest net contributor. According to Toute l'Europe, it paid nearly 23 billion euros in 2025, and on 14 October the National Assembly voted an estimated contribution of 30.9 billion for 2027. It is also the leading beneficiary of the common agricultural policy, with about 9.3 billion a year.

According to the Banque des Territoires, Emmanuel Macron rejects cuts in general, wants to protect agriculture, fisheries, cohesion and the future competitiveness fund, opposes any increase in national contributions and is betting on new own resources. According to Agence Europe, the Élysée warned against an "anti-Draghi" budget that would sacrifice industry, defence and innovation. Above all, the head of state warned that a deal would become politically very difficult once France enters the presidential campaign of April-May 2027. The day before the summit, on 14 October, Marine Le Pen reiterated in Brussels her intention to halve the French contribution, reports Agence Europe. António Costa, for his part, denied any link between his timetable and electoral deadlines.

The frugal countries' arguments deserve a hearing

It would be unfair to caricature Berlin or The Hague. Their governments argue that every euro sent to Brussels is missing from national schools, hospitals and armed forces, and that taxpayers expect rigour. Their refusal of new joint debt rests on a legitimate fear: that the Union gets used to borrowing without revenue to repay it. And they too are asking for more on defence and competitiveness.

But their logic runs into a contradiction, which the Élysée pointed out according to Agence Europe: the cuts they demand would fall mainly on the forward-looking policies they claim to support, since the CAP and cohesion are politically almost untouchable. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, for her part, warned that a budget 99.5% fixed for ten years would become a straitjacket in the face of crises, according to the Banque des Territoires.

What France should defend

A Europe that wants to carry weight between Washington, Moscow and Beijing cannot be built on the cheap. But nor can it be financed by endlessly increasing national contributions, paid in the end by households. The fairest path runs through own resources. The European Parliament has put the need at about 60 billion euros a year, according to Toute l'Europe, and its President, Roberta Metsola, sees them as a possible bridge to a deal, according to Agence Europe. Asking very large companies, digital giants and the most carbon-intensive imports to contribute, rather than farmers or fragile regions, is a matter of tax justice as much as of sovereignty.

France therefore has an interest in not retreating into the defence of its CAP alone. Its line could be clear: no deal without a genuine basket of own resources, and no cuts to cohesion, the cement of a Union in which gaps between regions feed the extremes. One question remains, which the 2027 campaign will make burning: will French leaders be able to explain to voters that a solid European budget is not money wasted, but a collective insurance?

Article written with the help of artificial intelligence.