Canada as an "associate member": Berlin pushes Brussels back, Paris must finally decide on CETA

Mark Carney, António Costa and Ursula von der Leyen meet in Montreal this Thursday 29 and Friday 30 October for a summit between Canada and the European Union. Billed as the summit of a "new alliance", it opens with a step back: the "associate member" status promised to Canada is not expected to appear in the final declaration.

The facts

On 16 September, in her State of the Union address in Strasbourg, the President of the Commission proposed that Canada become the Union's first "associate member", recalls the review Refrance. This status does not exist in any treaty: it would require the agreement of all twenty-seven member states and a new legal framework.

According to Euronews, which saw the latest draft declaration, the reference was removed on Wednesday after objections from Germany. It would be replaced by a commitment to an "ever closer" association, a wording that falls short of membership. Still according to Euronews, an earlier version had drawn reservations from Germany, but also from France, Italy and Greece, without the details of the French position being known. The new text was submitted to the so-called silent procedure, under which it is adopted unless someone objects.

The substance, however, remains. The draft declaration provides for a feasibility study on long-term exports of Canadian liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe, as well as cooperation on electricity grids and the protection of energy infrastructure, reports Euronews. Refrance also mentions a role for the European Investment Bank in critical minerals and Canada's participation in the European supercomputing initiative.

The energy context weighs heavily. On Wednesday, Europe's benchmark gas price rose above 100 euros per megawatt hour, a first since December 2022, according to Euronews. It stood at around 32 euros before the war in Iran, which began in late February. European storage was only 75% full on 21 October, against a usual target of 90% on 1 November, according to the European agency ACER, quoted by the same outlet.

The positions at stake

For Ottawa, the stakes are clear. The Canadian Prime Minister's office describes a world that is "more dangerous and divided" and wants an alliance strong enough that no one can dictate choices to the two partners. Faced with American trade measures against its exports, Canada is looking to Europe for a market and an ally. Mark Carney, according to Euronews, actually prefers to speak of an "alliance for the future" and leaves it to the Europeans to settle the question of words.

Berlin, for its part, rejects a term absent from the treaties, with uncertain legal consequences, and first wants to know what the cooperation covers in practice. The argument is serious: inventing a status for a third country also means creating a precedent, at a time when a comparable status for Ukraine is being debated.

On gas, supporters of the deal argue that a stable supplier would reduce dependence on Russia and on the United States, which has become the Union's largest LNG supplier. Climate Action Network Europe, on the contrary, sees it as a "dangerous distraction", according to remarks by its programme manager Esther Bollendorff reported by Euronews: new gas infrastructure creates commitments for decades and diverts capital from electrification.

The analysis

This summit reveals a Europe that moves faster in speeches than in law. Promising a status that does not exist, then withdrawing it on the eve of the meeting, is not a sign of seriousness. The principle of a strategic partnership with Canada is nonetheless right: a democracy committed to multilateralism, the rule of law and the fight against climate change is a natural ally when Washington chooses trade coercion.

But France approaches this meeting with a contradiction it can no longer ignore. The CETA trade agreement, provisionally applied since 2017, has still not been ratified by Paris. The Senate rejected it on 21 March 2024, by 211 votes to 44, recalls Toute l'Europe. Since then, the text has never been submitted to the National Assembly. Questioned by Senator Fabien Gay, the government replied on 1 October, praising the trade gains of the agreement, without setting a date for this vote, according to the Senate website.

The government has arguments: according to its reply, Canada has used only 3% of its beef quota, and French exports have done well. But a trade policy that bypasses Parliament weakens citizens' trust in Europe itself. One cannot firmly defend national oversight of the agreement with Mercosur while leaving CETA in a blind spot.

Canadian gas raises the same question of consistency. Securing the winter is a duty of the State, especially for low-income households hit by rising bills. But tying Europe for twenty or thirty years to new fossil infrastructure would run counter to its own climate commitments.

What now?

France has an interest in a strong alliance with Canada. It has just as much interest in that alliance resting on democratic and sustainable foundations. Two steps are within its reach: finally putting the ratification of CETA on the National Assembly's agenda, so that elected representatives decide in the open, and making any long-term gas contract conditional on a clear exit path, together with a partnership of equal ambition on electricity, critical minerals and energy renovation. An alliance for the future cannot be built on the energies of the past or on votes that are endlessly postponed.

Article written with the help of artificial intelligence.