Iran: oil at 117 dollars and the threat of new strikes, Europe must make itself heard before 3 November

Eight months after the war began on 28 February, Iran and the United States once again appear to be on the brink of a major escalation. Oil prices are soaring, embassies are emptying and Washington is openly talking about new strikes. Against this backdrop, the Istanbul meeting of 23 October, in which France took part, deserves more attention than it has received.

The facts

According to CBS News, Brent crude topped 117 dollars a barrel on Thursday 23 October, its highest level since the spring, after trading below 97 dollars at the start of October. The surge follows announcements by the Revolutionary Guards, who claim to have hit seven tankers in or near the Strait of Hormuz, according to Al Jazeera. A few days earlier, Reuters reported that two tankers had caught fire south of the strait after striking mines. Not all of these Iranian claims have been independently verified, and Donald Trump accuses Tehran of exaggerating the attacks to push prices up ahead of the US midterm elections on 3 November.

On the American side, the State Department has announced staff reductions at its embassies in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, which remain open, according to CBS News and the AP news agency. The Director of National Intelligence, Jay Clayton, warned in a memo that Iran had reportedly stepped up its efforts to target American personnel abroad. The US ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack, said a strike as early as this weekend was possible, while insisting that the president remained open to a deal.

Could there be a strike this weekend? Absolutely. — Tom Barrack, US ambassador to Turkey

Tehran responded in the same tone. The chief of staff of Iran's armed forces, Ali Abdollahi, said on Saturday that American warships would never be allowed back into the Persian Gulf, as reported by Al Jazeera and CBS News. Meanwhile, Yemen's Houthis, allies of Iran, are stepping up fire against Saudi Arabia, including Riyadh, according to AFP.

Istanbul, diplomacy among eight

On Friday 23 October, the foreign ministers of eight countries met in Istanbul at Turkey's initiative: France, the United Kingdom, Germany and Italy on one side, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt on the other. Neither Washington nor Tehran took part. According to AFP, the eight countries called on the belligerents to cease hostilities and to show the utmost restraint, and decided to meet regularly in an informal format.

Turkish minister Hakan Fidan summed up the common position, according to Al Jazeera:

Military intervention in Iran is by no means a solution. — Hakan Fidan, Turkish Foreign Minister

For France, Jean-Noël Barrot said, according to AFP, that a new escalation between Iran and the United States would produce only losers and would weigh heavily on hydrocarbon prices. Italy's Antonio Tajani argued for dialogue to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The arguments at stake

Those who defend a hard line deserve a fair hearing. In Washington as in Jerusalem, where Benjamin Netanyahu faces elections on 27 October, it is argued that only maximum military pressure will force Tehran to negotiate, and that the Iranian regime, which attacks civilian shipping and reportedly threatens diplomats, understands nothing but force. Germany itself, through Johann Wadephul, holds Iran and the Houthis responsible for the instability, Al Jazeera reports. These grievances are serious: attacks on merchant ships and the oil spill reported off the Emirates violate the law of the sea and threaten people who asked for none of this.

But the experience of the past eight months points the other way. The February strikes did not bring down the regime, the ceasefire negotiated by Pakistan in the spring and then the Islamabad memorandum signed in June did not hold, and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely obstructed. On the Iranian side, the ambassador in Islamabad says, according to AP, that Tehran remains open to talks within that framework. Each new military phase has hardened positions instead of bringing them closer.

What France stands to lose

For France and Europe, this war is not distant. It shows at the pump: the average price of diesel in the European Union reached a record 2.24 euros per litre in early October, according to a compilation of national data reported by Boursorama. It also shows in the streets, where anger over the cost of living has been mobilising people for several weeks. A new spike in oil prices would hit low-income households first, rural residents who depend on their cars, craftspeople and farmers.

There is a Gaullist lesson worth pondering here. France has never been more useful to the world than when it managed to talk to everyone and to say no when it had to, as in 2003 in the face of the Iraqi venture. The Istanbul format, which brings together Europeans and regional powers without the United States, points in that direction. Yet it will only be worth something if it leads to concrete proposals: a European mission to protect civilian shipping under a clear mandate, a guarantee mechanism to reopen Hormuz in exchange for an easing of the blockade, and a common message addressed to Washington before 3 November.

An open question

Will the restraint called for in Istanbul be enough if Europeans do not carry more weight? International law, the safety of seafarers and the purchasing power of French people all argue for a Europe that dares to put forward its own diplomatic initiative, rather than waiting, once again, to endure decisions taken elsewhere.

Article written with the help of artificial intelligence.