Iran, continued: Riyadh, Ankara and Islamabad in Tehran, Europe must seize the window before 3 November

On Monday 26 October, Iran hosted an unprecedented meeting in Tehran with three regional powers. The Saudi Defence Minister, Khalid bin Salman, the head of the Pakistani army, Field Marshal Asim Munir, and the head of Turkish intelligence, Ibrahim Kalin, were received by President Masoud Pezeshkian, according to i24NEWS, Al Jazeera and the Tehran Times. One week before the American midterm elections, the meeting looks like a race against time.

The facts

According to i24NEWS and the Belga agency, the meeting was initiated by Pakistan, a mediator in the conflict. It brought together Iran and the three signatories of the mutual defence pact concluded in Mecca in August, which provides that an attack on one is an attack on all. According to a Pakistani official quoted by Reuters, the discussions covered a regional non-aggression mechanism, negotiations between Washington and Tehran, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the American blockade of Iranian ports. The nuclear issue was reportedly not discussed.

The outcome remains modest. The four countries published a joint statement in which they commit to continuing the dialogue, the Tehran Times reports, but no concrete agreement was announced, i24NEWS notes. An Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran refused any discussion with the United States until its conditions, starting with the lifting of the blockade and of oil sanctions, were met.

The military context, for its part, is growing tense. According to The War Zone, citing CNN, American forces would be able to launch large-scale operations within 96 hours of a presidential order. Donald Trump said on Sunday that he had to choose between finishing the job and reaching a deal, and he reportedly told his advisers he expected to resume strikes after the 3 November vote, according to the same source. Meanwhile, explosions shook Riyadh on Sunday and Monday, and the Houthis claimed an attack on the Saudi capital's airport, according to Belga. Brent crude remained above 115 dollars a barrel on Monday evening, The War Zone reports.

The positions at stake

In Tehran, President Pezeshkian stated that Iran was not seeking nuclear weapons and remained a member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, according to the Tehran Times. He judged it contradictory to propose negotiations while threatening or striking the country's nuclear facilities.

In Washington, the meeting is being played down. A senior American official quoted by The War Zone believes the United States is in a position of strength and that the Iranian economy is collapsing. This argument deserves a hearing: Tehran sets very high preconditions, refuses to open the nuclear file, and its Houthi allies continue to strike Saudi territory. For advocates of firmness, easing the pressure now would amount to rewarding that strategy.

The analysts interviewed by Al Jazeera are divided. For Ali Vaez, of the International Crisis Group, the visit aims to strengthen those in Tehran who are ready to compromise, provided a credible formula can be found to bring the two sides closer. Sanam Vakil, of Chatham House, says she is cautiously optimistic about the meeting itself, much less so about a lasting breakthrough.

Analysis

What happened on Monday is not peace, but it is a political fact. Saudi Arabia, struck by Iran after the Israeli-American offensive of late February and regularly targeted by the Houthis, is sending its Defence Minister to its adversary's capital. The regional powers are acknowledging an obvious truth: no way out of the crisis will hold if it is only imposed from outside.

France has good reasons to welcome this. During his Gulf tour from 19 to 21 October, Emmanuel Macron recalled, according to the account published by the Élysée, that this war was not France's war, and that the French proposal to reopen Hormuz through international and Omani waters remained valid. On 23 October in Istanbul, Jean-Noël Barrot met his German, British and Italian counterparts as well as those of Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. According to Politique Matin, drawing on the statement published by the Quai d'Orsay, the eight countries set three priorities: de-escalation, negotiated solutions and freedom of navigation.

This is a line consistent with the French diplomatic tradition: talk to everyone, refuse escalation, defend international law. But a line is not a policy. The French are paying for this war at the pump and on their bills, and the Élysée reports additional diesel deliveries obtained from the Emirates. Low-income households, which depend most on their cars and spend a larger share of their budget on energy, are the first to be hit. De-escalation is not only a matter of principle, it is a matter of social justice.

Conclusion

The timetable is known: if the American press reports are confirmed, the diplomatic window could close after 3 November. France and its European partners should propose, before then, to bring the Istanbul format together with Iran around a limited and verifiable objective: a maritime security mechanism in Hormuz and the Red Sea, in exchange for the return of IAEA inspectors. It would be modest. But between capitulation and endless war, can Europe still afford to propose nothing?

Article written with the help of artificial intelligence.