Iran: Tehran has received Vance's letter, Trump threatens a strike after the midterms, Europe must weigh in first

Iran confirmed on Thursday evening that it had received a letter from US Vice President JD Vance, without having replied yet, according to the semi-official Tasnim agency quoted by Reuters. At the same time, Donald Trump is hinting that a new military operation could follow the midterm elections on 3 November. Between these two signals, the diplomatic window is narrow. Europe, which is already paying for this war through energy prices, has every interest in keeping it open.

The facts

According to the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times, as reported by Al Jazeera and Euronews, JD Vance wrote to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. The letter, handed over on Sunday by Qatari mediators according to Al Jazeera, has not been made public. It reportedly concerns a framework for negotiations rather than specific peace terms. According to Axios, Vance writes that any talks aimed at avoiding US strikes must address the nuclear programme. The New York Times mentions an upcoming meeting, led by Vance, in Qatar or Turkey.

Accounts differ on where the initiative came from. The Wall Street Journal says Donald Trump requested it. The president disputed this: according to Reuters, he explained that his vice president had asked for his opinion and that the initiative concerned medical supplies. He also said, Euronews reports, that Washington was not negotiating with Tehran and that "something will happen" soon. The Wall Street Journal says the head of US Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper, presented military options to him at the White House, and that Gulf allies have been told to prepare for a brief, intense campaign after the vote.

On the ground, tension is not easing. The Revolutionary Guards claim that several ships, three or four according to their successive statements, caught fire on Thursday after hitting mines south of the Strait of Hormuz, on a route they consider unauthorised, AFP reports. The British maritime agency UKMTO reported a ship on fire off Oman, without confirming any link to these claims. The fate of the crews was still unknown on Thursday.

The positions at stake

In Tehran, the speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, repeated according to Reuters that no progress was possible unless Iran's seven conditions were accepted, including the lifting of the US blockade of Iranian ports and of sanctions on oil. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, for his part, says his country continues to give diplomacy a chance, while declaring itself ready to defend itself.

In Washington, supporters of a hard line argue that only military pressure brought Iran to the table, and that a country believed to hold around 440 kilos of uranium enriched to 60%, according to estimates reported in the press, cannot be left unchecked. The argument is serious: a nuclear-armed Iran would threaten the whole region, and Europe along with it.

Europeans have chosen another path. On 23 October in Istanbul, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Italy, alongside Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt, called on the warring parties to stop fighting, according to AFP. Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot warned there against a new escalation.

Very heavy consequences for hydrocarbon prices — Jean-Noël Barrot, in Istanbul

The analysis

JD Vance's letter guarantees nothing. But it is the first sign in weeks that part of the US administration is seeking a negotiated way out. The Wall Street Journal also reports that the vice president privately doubted the value of prolonging the war. This fragile signal deserves to be encouraged rather than crushed under the US electoral calendar.

Striking again to force a deal means betting that a campaign presented as short will stay that way. Nothing guarantees it. Iran has warned, according to Al Jazeera, that this time it would target Gulf oil sites, undersea cables and data centres. For France and its neighbours, that would mean a new energy shock at the start of winter, just as low-income households are already struggling to heat their homes and fill their tanks. The first victims of an escalation are neither in Washington nor in Tehran: they are Iranian civilians, sailors trapped in the strait, and then the most vulnerable households everywhere else.

True to a tradition of independence embodied by General de Gaulle and Jacques Chirac, France does not have to choose between aligning with Washington and indulging Tehran. Jean-Noël Barrot set a clear line on RTL in the spring: no lifting of sanctions as long as Hormuz remains blocked, Ici Beyrouth recalls. This firmness is legitimate. It must now come with a credible offer. In April, the Élysée brought together nearly fifty countries around a "strictly defensive" maritime mission to reopen the strait. That diplomatic capital exists; it must be put to use.

What now?

Paris could propose, with Berlin, London and Rome, to host or guarantee the announced talks, in support of the Qatari and Turkish mediators. Europe could put a simple mechanism on the table: the return of international inspectors to the bombed nuclear sites, as the mediators suggest according to Axios, in exchange for a gradual and reversible easing of sanctions, tied to the effective reopening of Hormuz. It should also state clearly that a strike launched before the diplomatic route has been exhausted would depart from the spirit of the United Nations Charter.

One question remains that European capitals can no longer avoid: will they merely comment on Donald Trump's decision after 3 November, or will they manage to weigh in beforehand?

Article written with the help of artificial intelligence.