Israel, follow-up: exit polls point to a Knesset without a majority, Europe must set out its expectations

The facts

Polling stations closed at 10 p.m. local time, and the first estimates sketch a landscape with no clear winner. According to exit polls reported by Ynetnews, Channel 12 gives 52 seats to the so-called "change" opposition bloc, 50 to Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc and 18 to the Arab parties. Channel 13 shows a similar balance: 53 seats for the opposition, 50 for the outgoing Prime Minister's camp, 17 for the Arab lists. In both cases, Likud would remain the largest party (24 or 25 seats), just ahead of Yashar, the centrist party of former army chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot (22 or 23 seats). A majority in the Knesset requires 61 of 120 seats: neither bloc would reach it on its own.

These figures are still estimates. According to Ynetnews, more than 650,000 double-envelope ballots must be counted separately, and the count could run until Friday morning. President Isaac Herzog will then have to consult the elected factions before entrusting one of the leaders with forming a government.

One thing, however, is already certain: turnout. According to the Central Elections Committee, cited by Middle East Eye and Ynetnews, turnout reached 74.3% at 8 p.m., a level not seen at that hour since 1988. The exit polls also point to a clear gain for the Arab parties, which pre-election surveys had put at around 14 seats.

The positions

It was a tense day. According to AFP, Benjamin Netanyahu accused the opposition of trying to "steal the election" and urged his supporters not to leave the battle to the left and the Arab parties. Middle East Eye reports that he warned against a government that would depend on Mansour Abbas and Ahmed Tibi, two figures of the Arab minority. Gadi Eisenkot responded, again according to AFP, by accusing him of laying the groundwork to contest an unfavourable result. The Israeli NGO Adalah reported obstacles placed in the way of Arab voters at some polling stations. The elections committee said, according to the Times of Israel as cited by AFP, that it saw no sign of systematic manipulation at this stage.

On the opposition side, the line is clear on one point. Asked before the vote, Gadi Eisenkot ruled out governing under Benjamin Netanyahu, even under a rotation agreement, as reported by i24NEWS. But the arithmetic is harsh: without the Arab parties, the change bloc would remain far from a majority. Yet several of its components, including Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu, have in the past ruled out relying on these parties. There is a precedent, though: in 2021, the Bennett-Lapid government included Ra'am, Mansour Abbas's party.

Israelis themselves seem to anticipate a deadlock. In a poll by public broadcaster Kan cited by i24NEWS, 27% of respondents expected a national unity government, 27% new elections and 26% a minority government.

Analysis

One can understand the argument of the Netanyahu camp: after October 7 and the war with Iran, part of the electorate above all wants firmness and continuity, and fears that a heterogeneous coalition would be unable to make decisions. This concern is not illegitimate. But presenting the vote of Israeli citizens as a threat, because they are Arab, damages the very democracy one claims to defend. A fifth of the country's population is not an adjustment variable.

This election is also taking place in a heavy international context. The day before, on October 26, the UN commission of inquiry on the occupied Palestinian territory upheld, according to UN News, its finding of genocidal acts in Gaza and accused Israel of crimes against humanity in the West Bank, which Israel categorically rejects. Benjamin Netanyahu is still the subject of an International Criminal Court arrest warrant. And Palestinian legislative elections are scheduled for November 28, as Jean-Noël Barrot recalled to Public Sénat in September, saying they "must imperatively take place".

For France and Europe, the stakes therefore go beyond a simple change of face in Jerusalem. An Eisenkot government would not automatically, on substance, be the architect of a Palestinian state: the Israeli centre remains cautious on this issue. But it could reopen a dialogue that the outgoing coalition, allied with the far right of Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, had largely closed. Conversely, a renewed Netanyahu government, or weeks of paralysis, would prolong the uncertainty at the very moment Palestinians are due to vote.

Conclusion

Europe has too often waited to see who would govern Israel before saying what it wanted. Gaullist fidelity to international law calls for the opposite: setting out now, whoever wins, clear and shared expectations. Respect for the result of the ballot box, protection of Arab citizens' right to vote, a halt to settlement expansion, support for the Palestinian vote on November 28. Paris, which has recognised the State of Palestine, is well placed to carry this message to Brussels. One question remains: will the Twenty-Seven manage to speak with one voice before the coalition is formed, rather than after?

Article written with the help of artificial intelligence.