UN: the Emirati bid shakes up the race to succeed Guterres, France must hold the line of law

The facts

The race to succeed António Guterres, whose second term ends on 31 December, has taken an unexpected turn. On 21 October, the United Arab Emirates officially nominated Lana Nusseibeh for the post of UN Secretary-General, reports the Times of Israel. Aged 48, Lana Nusseibeh represented her country at the UN from 2013 to 2024 before becoming Minister of State for Foreign Affairs. If elected, she would be the first woman and the first person of Palestinian descent to lead the organisation.

The bid comes as the process is stalled. According to AP, as carried by ABC News, the Security Council's sixth straw poll, on 16 October, produced no candidate backed by all five permanent members. Costa Rica's Rebeca Grynspan, Secretary-General of UNCTAD, came first with nine encouraging votes, but two permanent members came out against her, as they did against Argentina's Rafael Grossi, head of the IAEA, and Guyana's Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett. Senegal's Macky Sall has since withdrawn, according to the specialist website PassBlue. The next vote, scheduled for 23 October, has been postponed until next week, according to AFP. The Emirati candidate is due to be introduced to member states on 27 October, according to the spokesperson for the President of the General Assembly quoted by La Voce di New York.

The framework is set by Article 97 of the Charter, the UN notes: the General Assembly appoints the Secretary-General on the recommendation of the Security Council, where each of the five permanent members, France among them, holds a veto.

The positions

Lana Nusseibeh's supporters put forward serious arguments. An experienced diplomat, she presided over the Security Council when her country held a seat there and is seen in New York as intelligent and pragmatic, according to RFI as quoted by AFP. The Emirates have close working relations with all five permanent members, notes the Times of Israel, which could make their candidate a compromise figure, while the Trump administration has reportedly, according to the same newspaper, objected to all the other contenders. US officials told AP that no candidate was ideal in their view and that their priority was a deep reform of the UN. The candidate sums up her approach this way:

This is the moment to act with greater urgency — Lana Nusseibeh

The objections are just as serious. The first concerns regional rotation: under this unwritten rule, the post is due this time to Latin America and the Caribbean, where most of the other candidates come from, recalls the Jerusalem Post. The second concerns Sudan. UN experts monitoring sanctions have found credible the allegations of Emirati support for the Rapid Support Forces, themselves accused of war crimes, reports the Times of Israel. Abu Dhabi denies this. Speaking to PassBlue, Yale researcher Nathaniel Raymond points to a risk of conflict of interest. AFP also recalls that the Emirates abstained in February 2022 in the Council vote condemning the invasion of Ukraine. For her part, Lana Nusseibeh told Reuters that she has taken leave from her post and intends to make Sudan's humanitarian crisis a priority.

The analysis

The pragmatic arguments deserve a hearing. A UN without a leader on 1 January would be worse than an imperfect choice. And nothing prevents a figure from a Gulf state from speaking with a universal voice: Egypt's Boutros Boutros-Ghali led the organisation from 1992 to 1996.

But the Secretary-General is not just one mediator among others. The office embodies the Charter and must be able to speak the law to all, including the powerful and those who backed the officeholder. Yet Sudan is one of the worst humanitarian disasters of our time: according to Human Rights Watch, 14 million people there have fled their homes. In July the NGO documented the transit through the Emirates of Colombian fighters sent to Darfur, as well as the diversion to the paramilitaries of European equipment, including a French system. Abu Dhabi denies any involvement. It is not for a commentator to settle what belongs to investigations, but states cannot act as if the question did not exist.

This is where France is expected to act. Human Rights Watch criticises it for never naming the Emirates in its statements on Sudan and for continuing to supply them with weapons. Paris has real interests in Abu Dhabi and nobody is asking it to sacrifice them. But the Gaullist tradition means independence of judgement, including towards partners. A France that wants a strong UN can neither support nor dismiss a candidacy purely on the basis of a bilateral calculation, nor let Washington choose alone in the name of its reform. Multilateralism is not window dressing: it is the protection of countries that have no veto, and often of civilians who have nothing left.

Conclusion

On 27 October, member states will be able to question the Emirati candidate. France should ask for this exchange to be public and thorough, and should put the Sudan question to her clearly, as it would to any other contender. It could also champion a simple rule: before any Council recommendation, every candidate still in the race should publicly present their commitments on peace, development and respect for international law. The real question is not whether an Emirati diplomat can lead the UN, but whether the UN will be able to choose its leader in full daylight rather than in the back room of the big five.

Article written with the help of artificial intelligence.