Hormuz: Washington and Israel prepare for after 3 November, Europe must prepare for peace

The Strait of Hormuz is once again one of the most dangerous places on the globe. According to the Revolutionary Guards, whose claim was relayed by the Xinhua agency and by Reuters, seven ships were hit in two days: four in the northern Persian Gulf, three others after striking mines west of the strait. These claims have not been independently verified, but they fit into a series that nobody disputes. According to a researcher at the Washington Institute quoted by Stars and Stripes, at least 28 attacks on ships have been recorded in the area since the beginning of October, a pace not seen since the war broke out at the end of February.

The facts: an escalation waiting for its timetable

At the same time, the New York Times reported, citing unnamed American officials, that the American and Israeli militaries have plans to resume strikes on Iran after the 3 November midterm elections. The targets under consideration would include energy and nuclear sites, as well as missile and drone production sites. Donald Trump has not, at this stage, ordered any attack, Stars and Stripes points out.

The Financial Times, quoted by the Jerusalem Post, also states that the Israeli army was ready to launch a multi-day operation around 10 October, before giving it up in the face of opposition from the American president, who was keen not to reopen the conflict before the vote. The State Department ordered non-essential embassy staff to leave Saudi Arabia, after an attack on Dammam airport attributed by Riyadh to the Houthis, which killed two people according to the Saudi authorities.

On the markets, Brent was trading at around 112 dollars on Thursday, according to Stars and Stripes, up more than 3 dollars in a single day.

The positions at stake

Washington presents its strategy as maximum pressure intended to bring Tehran back to the table. According to the head of Centcom, Admiral Brad Cooper, the blockade of Iranian ports has reportedly deprived Iran of at least 25 billion dollars in crude exports, and the attacks at sea are said to reflect growing desperation among the Guards. Donald Trump, according to AFP, accuses Iran of doing everything it can to push oil prices up before the elections, and claims that more oil now passes through the strait than before the war.

Tehran turns the argument around. The Guards, according to AFP, blame the rising number of incidents on the « illegal » routes that Washington allegedly pushes shipowners to use, and warn that the confrontation could spread to American bases in the region. According to Time, Tehran is demanding economic relief and an end to the war before any nuclear talks.

In Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday, according to AFP, that only overthrowing the Iranian government would eliminate the threat. He faces voters on 27 October.

A more nuanced reading comes from Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group. In an opinion piece published by Time, he describes a deadlock: each side is betting that time is on its side. Yet the outlines of a deal exist, in his view: reciprocal steps to reopen Hormuz, a gradual lifting of sanctions, the resumption of nuclear negotiations. The obstacle is the order of the steps and trust.

The analysis: Europe pays, Europe must weigh in

For France and Europe, this war is not far away. Before the conflict, around one fifth of the world's hydrocarbons passed through this passage some thirty kilometres wide, AFP recalls. A barrel above 110 dollars ends up at the pump, in heating bills, in the costs of hauliers and farmers. It is modest households, and people in rural and peri-urban areas who depend on their cars, who bear the brunt first.

The argument of those who consider firmness essential deserves a hearing: an Iran that threatens international shipping and pursues nuclear ambitions is a real danger, including for Europe. But a resumption of bombing whose timing is set by electoral deadlines, in Washington as in Jerusalem, would offer no guarantee of a way out. Nine months of war have neither durably reopened the strait nor produced a deal.

France is not without levers. Its navy is engaged in the Red Sea in the European operation Aspides: according to Zone Militaire, a French frigate shot down in early October a drone deemed threatening to a CMA CGM container ship, and more than 150 ships have been escorted since 2024. Emmanuel Macron announced earlier this year, according to TRT, a future « purely defensive » international mission to reopen Hormuz, once the most intense phase is over. This is the line inherited from Gaullist and Chiraquian diplomacy: protecting freedom of navigation without merging into an offensive coalition, talking to everyone, relying on international law.

Conclusion: preparing for peace before the next salvo

Europe has a narrow window, until 3 November. Paris, Berlin and London, which carried nuclear diplomacy with Iran in the past, could propose a structured mediation built around the sequence described by Crisis Group, together with Qatar and Oman, and prepare now the announced defensive escort mission. In parallel, a targeted European mechanism to help the households and sectors most exposed to the energy price surge would be a response of social justice as much as of cohesion.

The question remains open: does Europe want to be the first to pay the price of this war, or one of the few voices able to chart a way out of it?

Article written with the help of artificial intelligence.