Western Sahara: double veto at the UN, MINURSO left without a mandate, France must save the ceasefire

An unprecedented double veto

On Friday 30 October, the United Nations Security Council left unrenewed the mandate of the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), which expires this Saturday, 31 October. According to the official record of the meeting published by the UN, the American draft received 11 votes in favour, 1 against and 3 abstentions: it could have passed, but Russia used its veto. The rival text submitted by Moscow obtained only 3 votes in favour, and the United States blocked it in turn.

According to Reuters, the American draft would have extended the mission for one year, made the Moroccan autonomy plan the sole basis for negotiations, reduced its military component and removed the word "referendum" from its name. The Russian text proposed a simple renewal, with no changes. The organisation Western Sahara Resource Watch, which supports self-determination, points out that this is the first time two permanent members have tabled rival resolutions on this file and blocked each other. France voted for the American text and abstained on the Russian one.

The mission has 155 military personnel, at an estimated cost of 62 million dollars for the fiscal year that began in June, according to a report by the Secretary-General cited by Reuters. Since 1991 it has monitored the ceasefire between Morocco and the Polisario Front, in a conflict some fifty years old, Le Monde recalls.

The positions at stake

Washington is embracing a break. For US Ambassador Michael Waltz, the referendum never took place because there was no agreement on who could vote, and it is time to turn the page. Before the Council, he described the mission as:

a permanent monument to something that could not work — Michael Waltz, United States Ambassador to the UN

The argument is a serious one: thirty-five years after its creation, MINURSO has not organised the vote that justified its existence, and last year the Council had already backed the autonomy plan as a basis for a settlement, according to Reuters. Paris shares this reading: since the summer of 2024, France has considered that the territory's future lies within the framework of Moroccan sovereignty. Before the Council, its delegation called the American text an important step forward and accused Moscow of taking the mission hostage by tabling its draft late.

Russia, which had abstained on these renewals since 2018 according to Western Sahara Resource Watch, presents its veto on the contrary as a protective gesture. Its representative Vassily Nebenzia argued that the Council cannot decide a question of sovereignty in advance. China said the mandate should not be used as an instrument of political pressure. Denmark, which abstained on the Russian text, recalled that a lasting solution cannot be predetermined by the Council. Algeria, which is not a member of the Council but spoke as a neighbouring country, argued for a vote by the Sahrawis.

Rabat, finally, welcomes the outcome. According to the statement from the Royal Cabinet reported by Hespress, Morocco sees it as a significant step towards closing the file at the UN, calls for the mission's personnel to leave in the coming days and for the question to be removed from the Council's agenda. The kingdom says it remains committed to the ceasefire.

Analysis: the law is not settled by exhaustion

Weariness with a stalled process is understandable. But Friday's outcome is the worst of all scenarios: neither reform nor continuity. A territory that the UN still lists among non-self-governing territories loses, overnight, its only international observers, while the military situation remains fragile. Oxfam, cited by Reuters, warns of the risks for civilians and for refugees in the Tindouf camps.

We must also look at who produced this vacuum. The Russian veto is not an act of generosity towards the Sahrawis: it allows Moscow to pose as a defender of international law, even though the UN General Assembly has condemned its aggression against Ukraine. But by blocking a simple renewal in turn, Washington also bears its share of responsibility.

For France, the question runs deeper. A diplomacy faithful to the Gaullist tradition does not take sides against the law; it holds both ends. Paris can consider the autonomy plan serious without giving up on the population concerned being consulted in one form or another. The Court of Justice of the European Union recalled this in October 2024, when it annulled trade agreements between the Union and Morocco for lack of consent from the people of Western Sahara. Europe cannot defend the principle of self-determination in Kyiv and forget it in Laayoune without damaging its own credibility.

Conclusion: save the ceasefire first

According to the website Maghreb Online, a short technical extension was reportedly discussed in the corridors of the UN on Friday evening, without official confirmation. This is the path that France, a permanent member close to both shores of the Mediterranean, should champion without delay: keep observers on the ground while a compromise is built, then propose a process in which autonomy would be submitted, in one way or another, to the approval of the Sahrawis. Will it carry enough weight to ensure that the end of a mission does not become the beginning of a new war?

Article written with the help of artificial intelligence.