Guterres succession, continued: Washington reportedly pushing Orbán towards the UN, France must defend the institution's independence

The facts

According to the Wall Street Journal, whose reporting was picked up on Sunday and Monday by Euronews and Brussels Signal, officials in the Trump administration are said to be encouraging Viktor Orbán to run for Secretary-General of the United Nations. The American daily, relying on sources in three countries, describes a joint candidacy backed by the United States, Russia and China. Neither the White House, nor Moscow, nor Beijing has confirmed the reports, and no state has so far officially nominated the former Hungarian prime minister.

According to Euronews, no final decision has reportedly been made, and Viktor Orbán would only enter the race if he were sure to win. Brussels Signal reports that a State Department official believes he could gather 8 of the 15 votes on the Security Council, perhaps 10. Nine are needed, with no veto from any of the five permanent members. The United Kingdom and France have not made their position known, according to the same outlet, and either could block such a candidacy.

The timetable is tight. António Guterres's second term ends on 31 December. Yet the selection is deadlocked: in the Council's sixth straw poll, on 16 October, every candidate received at least one negative opinion from a permanent member, according to results published by the specialist site PassBlue. Costa Rica's Rebeca Grynspan leads with 9 favourable opinions, but also 5 unfavourable ones, 2 of them from permanent members. Argentina's Rafael Grossi, Director General of the IAEA, and Guyana's Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett follow with 8 favourable opinions each. According to Security Council Report, the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean reiterated on 13 October that they wished to see one of their own take the post. Since then, the United Arab Emirates announced on 21 October the candidacy of their minister of state Lana Nusseibeh, and the straw poll planned for 23 October was postponed, according to PassBlue.

A record that raises questions

Viktor Orbán lost power in April, after sixteen years leading Hungary, to Péter Magyar's Tisza party. His time in office was marked by long conflicts with the European Union over the rule of law, migration and support for Ukraine. Brussels had frozen part of the European funds earmarked for Budapest; the Commission has since released around 16.4 billion euros, according to Brussels Signal.

Since the change of government, Hungarian prosecutors have been investigating former members of his government. Euronews reports that two former ministers and the former governor of the central bank have been arrested. No proceedings currently target Viktor Orbán himself, and he is entitled to the presumption of innocence. The investigative outlet VSquare suggested in May that a UN post might appeal to him because of the diplomatic immunity it confers; this is a hypothesis, on which his entourage has not commented.

The arguments on each side

Supporters of this option make an argument of realism. A Secretary-General backed by Washington, Moscow and Beijing alike would, in theory, have the ear of the three powers that have been paralysing the Council for years. The Wall Street Journal's editorial board, highly critical of António Guterres, openly asks the question: why not him? In a weakened, cash-strapped organisation, a leader accepted by the great powers might unblock certain files.

Yet the same editorial board acknowledges that there are "plenty of reasons" to oppose him, and fears he would act as an apologist for Vladimir Putin and other authoritarian leaders. His opponents also point out that Article 100 of the United Nations Charter forbids the Secretary-General from seeking or receiving instructions from any government. A candidate chosen first and foremost for his closeness to three capitals would start out under a heavy suspicion of dependence.

Analysis: the UN's independence is not negotiable

The Gaullist tradition has always championed a demanding multilateralism: France sits on the Security Council not to referee bargains between powers, but to uphold international law. Handing the post of Secretary-General to a figure whose record European institutions have judged contrary to the rule of law would send a disastrous signal to human rights defenders, to peoples at war and to the countries of the Global South that expect the UN to protect them.

This option also poses a European problem. The Union spent years obtaining guarantees from Budapest; seeing the former Hungarian leader speak for the international community, with the Kremlin's support, would weaken Europe's position on Ukraine. Finally, it would mean ignoring the ongoing process, in which candidates were given public hearings, and Latin America's legitimate demand.

Caution is nonetheless in order. At this stage, these are only press reports based on anonymous sources. But the current deadlock, which each of the permanent members has helped to create, opens the door to this kind of last-minute solution.

Conclusion

France holds a veto; it also has a responsibility. Rather than waiting for an official candidacy, Paris could state now, together with its European partners, which criteria it will consider essential: independence, commitment to the Charter, respect for human rights. The question is simple: do the great powers want a Secretary-General, or a spokesperson?

Article written with the help of artificial intelligence.